UPTHINKING FINANCE

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked The enduring wisdom of financial planning often revolves around diversification(1). Yet, as highlighted in this episode of Upthinking Finance™, the ways we balance portfolios—and the very assumptions underpinning traditional advice—may be overdue for review. We’re focusing on the critical importance of risk management for investors, especially in the years leading up to retirement, and on how past market conditions may not reflect what lies ahead. My guest, Mike Philbrick, shares his thoughts on the shift from decades of falling interest rates and stable inflation to a more volatile environment marked by rising rates, inflation shocks, and evolving global dynamics. He believes that investors should move beyond traditional stock and bond portfolios by embracing greater diversification—including exposure to commodities (2), global assets, and alternative strategies like trend following and return stacking. (1) There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.(2) The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors. The End of a 40-Year TailwindThe last four decades have been a period largely defined by falling interest rates, disinflation, and economic globalization. These conditions created a supportive backdrop for the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio. When stocks faltered, bonds often thrived, offering consistent dampening of volatility. This yin-yang dynamic established a pattern of reliable returns and relatively muted drawdowns for balanced portfolios.However, the recent shift—marked by rising interest rates, surges in inflation, and increasing geopolitical fragmentation—has upended this familiar regime. Not only have stocks and bonds begun to move more closely together, but bond investors have faced a five-year bear market. For anyone banking on the playbook from the last 30 or 40 years, the past few years have been a wake-up call.Recognizing and Addressing Portfolio Blind SpotsOne concept we discuss is the implicit risk of overreliance on market-capitalization-weighted indices such as the S&P 500. Historically, dominant sectors and companies shift dramatically within these indices. In 2008, Exxon was the largest S&P component, only to be eclipsed by technology firms in recent years. Today, the S&P 500 has minimal exposure to commodities and natural resources, even though these sectors can play a crucial role during certain economic cycles.A key theme that emerges from our discussion is the importance of true diversification—not just across stocks and bonds, but also across economic regimes (rising vs. falling growth and inflation), sectors, geographies, and alternative return streams. Index funds do not provide equal sector exposure, and investors holding only S&P 500 funds may be exposed to major blind spots, especially if the tech-heavy US market falters or if global commodity cycles become more pronounced.The Power of Return StackingThe discussion explored the concept of “return stacking”—layering alternative investment strategies, such as managed futures or trend-following funds, on top of traditional portfolios without the need to sell core holdings. Traditional diversification often means “diversification by subtraction”; selling some equities or bonds to buy alternatives. However, this approach can feel like a drag in bull markets when those alternatives underperform.Return stacking, however, enables investors to keep their core portfolio intact while adding diversifiers—achieving additive, rather than subtractive, diversification. Even when these strategies lag, the core portfolio continues to deliver, and in times of crisis, the diversifiers can shine. For example, trend-following and managed futures strategies have historically delivered significant positive returns during events such as the 2000 tech crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the inflation-driven declines of 2021-2022.Embracing Flexibility, Facing UncertaintyEmbracing new strategies, acknowledging the limitations of prediction, and preparing for multiple possible futures isn’t just smart—it’s necessary. The era of relying solely on what’s worked before is over. By recognizing blind spots, embracing innovative methods like return stacking, and acknowledging the behavioral realities of investing, both advisors and investors can build portfolios capable of withstanding whatever the next decade may bring.Mike Philbrick is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedAdaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times - and Bad (3)(3) Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Connect With Mike PhilbrickReSolve Asset Management Connect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarkedIt’s a pleasure to welcome back to the show, Mr. Alex Krainer, a highly respected expert in finance and economics. A former hedge fund manager and portfolio manager, Alex is also the founder of I-System Trend Following, an innovative strategy focused on market trends. He’s authored several books on market dynamics and economic trends, and his insights are in high demand, often featured on podcasts worldwide. Beyond his professional success, Alex is a devoted father of two. Today, we’re excited to have him return to share his expertise and valuable perspective with us again. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Welcome to Upthinking Finance (00:00)How can tariffs be inflammatory (01:50)Impact of FIAT currency manipulation (05:45)Weak currencies of other countries (09:00)Could tariffs lead to something better? (15:50)Is globalization dead? (23:00)Remove emotion out of investing (35:04)Why you should follow trend investing, now (41:20)How Tariffs Can Be InflammatoryIs it beneficial for commodity-driven inflation? Does a weak dollar mean a better market? Alex shares with us how tariffs can cause inflation because they raise the price of imported goods, and domestic companies often raise their prices because they face less competition. Plus, without cheap imports, the pressure to keep prices low disappears, leading to higher costs overall.He explains that while tariffs could theoretically weaken the dollar and make U.S. exports cheaper, he is skeptical about how much this will benefit the U.S. economy because other major currencies are also weak. He also believes that the real impact will be on commodity prices, potentially leading to inflation and that the broader global economic situation makes the future outcome uncertain. Death of the Global Market?Alex forewarns us that globalization, as we know it (especially the version driven by powerful corporations, elites, and big banks), is either dead or in its dying agony. Essentially, the model where large multinational corporations and too-big-to-fail banks controlled global trade is no longer sustainable.However, Alex doesn’t believe globalization itself is completely gone. He sees a new form of globalization emerging, driven by entrepreneurs and technology. It’s decentralized, more accessible, and allows ordinary people to create businesses and jobs globally. While the collapse of the old systems may be messy, it’s giving way to a new, hopeful future that’s just taking shape. This new globalization is more personal, meaningful, and decentralized. It allows ordinary people to connect worldwide, create value, and improve their own lives without relying on big corporations. Alex believes this shift is liberating because it gives people more control over their futures, allows them to innovate, and helps them transcend the old, corporate-driven systems that have dominated for so long.Why Trend Investing is Important NowAlex advises that following trends has always been the most reliable way to make money in the markets. Trends reflect collective human psychology. For example, when people see housing prices going up or a company succeeding, they tend to jump in, further driving up the value. These trends can create big investment opportunities.One key point Alex makes is that long-term trends are the most powerful drivers of investment success, and those who ride trends tend to do better than most investors who focus on predicting short-term market movements.In terms of practical investing, Alex suggests diversifying across multiple markets like energy, metals, commodities, and stocks, and capturing trends when they happen. This approach has been successful for hedge funds since the 70s, and it remains the most reliable strategy for long-term, sustainable returns.Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedAbout – I-System Trend FollowingConnect With Alex KrainerAlex Krainer | SubstackConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

In this episode of UPThinking Finance™, Chris Hoke shares the story behind Underground Ministries, an organization dedicated to helping incarcerated individuals reintegrate into society. Also joining us is Corrina Lozano, a former participant whose journey of struggle and redemption highlights the transformative power of the ministry’s support. Through their key programs—gang outreach and One Parish, One Prisoner—Underground Ministries is making a lasting impact on individuals and communities alike.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Underground Ministries with Chris Hoke and Corrina Lozano (00:00)How the organization Underground Ministries got started (01:30)Corrina Lozano’s story, from being served to serving others (05:30)Barriers people getting out of prison face with housing (13:36)Are barriers and stigmas changing? (22:18)Intentional giving, telling your money where to go (23:50)How Underground Ministries gets its funding (25:20)Chris Hoke and Corrina Lozano are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedChecking in with Charles Hugh Smith, Ep #54Thoughtful Giving by Peter C CaveltiConnect with Chris Hoke and Corrina LozanoUnderground MinistriesChris’s WebsiteConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

Today’s guest is economist Lyn Alden, an independent analyst and founder of Lyn Alden-Investment Strategy, where she publishes monthly research reports for both retail and institutional investors. With a background in electrical engineering and a master’s in engineering management specializing in financial modeling, Lyn excels at breaking down complex economic trends into plain English. She is also a general partner at Ego Death Capital and the author of the 2023 bestseller “Broken Money,” which examines the evolution of money through the lens of technology. In this episode, Lyn offers her perspective on the macroeconomic factors shaping 2025, including political uncertainty, fiscal dominance, and more.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...How Lyn got into investment research [1:50]The 2024 election’s influence on the economy [8:00]What happens with the debt ceiling? [16:25]What Lyn likes better than the dollar and why [22:09]Lyn’s view on BRICS plans [22:45]Expiring tax cuts and bank lending [28:40]Lyn’s experience with Bitcoin [33:55]Lyn’s advice to avoid complacency [41:40]Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedBroken Money, Lyn AldenEgo Death CapitalLyn Alden-Investment StrategyConnect With Lyn AldenLyn AldenConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

In today’s episode, we dive into the significance of the 2024 Presidential Election. While every election impacts the country, this one feels especially critical, with far-reaching consequences that extend beyond U.S. borders.Our guest is Alex Krainer, a former hedge fund manager, market analyst, and creator of the I-System trend-following model. With his unique global perspective, we explore the potential implications of this election on both the U.S. and the world.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Is it possible that the 2024 presidential election won't happen? [2:15]What is really going on? A clash of systems of governance [8:12]What's weighing on voters, domestic policies for candidates [12:20]What Alex says is the only choice in the election [16:13]Are people waking up to the corruption of the systems? [21:52]How do you know what to believe or trust anymore? [27:55]Anything that gives Alex hope about the political system? [40:39]The American people have all the potential to build the US back up [48:55]Resources & People MentionedTrend Investing ModelsThe Wisdom of CrowdsThe Trend Following BibleConnect With Alex KrainerFollow on XAlex's SubstackThe Naked HedgieConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

Is the U.S. economy heading for a crisis, or is it still the safest bet in the global marketplace?Peter Cavelti, an expert with over 50 years of experience in investment and geopolitical analysis, returns to talk about the Fed's recent rate cut, the future of the U.S. dollar, and global economic shifts.In our wide-ranging conversation, Peter goes pretty deep into why predictions of the dollar's imminent collapse might be exaggerated. Plus we talk about the rising influence of the BRICS nations, and how the United States' debt burden could lead to significant economic consequences. Cavelti also shares insights into the challenges facing global powers like Europe and Japan, and the shifting dynamics in international capital flows. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Are recent Fed rate cuts a game-changer for the U.S. economy? [0:28]Will the Fed’s policy shifts shake up the global economy? [2:57]Is the U.S. dollar’s dominance under serious threat?. [7:00]Is the growing U.S. debt leading us to a financial crisis? [4:00]What does the wealth gap mean for the future of America’s middle class? [20:00]Why should you avoid investing in liabilities during uncertain times? [27:10]Could negative interest rates hit the U.S.? [34:10]Are Europeans more disillusioned with their governments than Americans? [42:10]Peter Cavelti is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedU.S. Federal Reserve recent developmentsBRICS U.S. Treasury BondsConnect With Peter CaveltiPeter Cavelti’s website: www.cavelti.comConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

How will the upcoming US elections impact the geopolitical landscape? We recently saw an attempt on former President Trump’s life. Biden “bowed out” of running for another term. How does that play a role in upcoming elections? We’ve seen and continue to see the pollution of elections worldwide. Will things change? John Waters and Alex Krainer return to discuss the current geopolitical landscape in episode #59 of UPThinking Finance™.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Running for office in Ireland [1:40] The pollution of elections worldwide [7:31] Dissecting the attempted assassination [12:07] Why the upcoming US election is important [23:12] It’s either Trump or hell on earth [29:06] The dictatorship of compassion [38:54] Will we see an awakening in Europe? [44:29] John and Alex’s final thoughts [52:18] John Waters and Alex Krainer are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Connect With John Waters and Alex KrainerAlex Krainer's TrendCompassJohn Waters UnchainedConnect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK