Finding the Goldilocks Zone for Uncertainty in the Avalanche Forecast

About this episode

The episode discusses the challenges of uncertainty in avalanche forecasting and how it can be communicated to users.

The avalanche forecast is shot through with uncertainty. The variables of terrain, snow, and weather, dispersed across vast areas, are simply too numerous to fully account for. If that's the case, if there's just a lot we don't know, then how much should uncertainty be foregrounded in the forecast? And would expressing uncertainty impair your operation's reputation with backcountry users? Eeva Latosuo, an associate professor of Outdoor Studies at Alaska Pacific University, and Brian Lazar, deputy director of CAIC, join us to discuss the work they've done studying what forecasters don't know and how they can communicate that to an audience.

People in this episode

Guests: Eeva Latosuo, Brian Lazar

Topics covered

• avalanche forecasting
• uncertainty
• communication
• backcountry safety
• terrain analysis

Keywords

• avalanche
• forecast
• uncertainty
• communication
• backcountry
• snow
• weather

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Alaska Pacific University, CAIC

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