The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time

About this episode

Jim Paulsen discusses the current macro environment and various economic indicators to assess whether we are facing a slowing economy or the beginnings of a new bull market.

This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail signal to private credit stress, productivity trends, and policy uncertainty, offering a data-driven perspective on where markets and the economy may be headed next. Paulsen Perspectives Substack https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com Topics Covered Why the recent oil spike hasn’t impacted inflation and interest rates as expected Slowing economic growth vs. recession risk and what the Fed might do next The Walmart vs luxury retail indicator and what it signals about the economy Private credit risks and how they differ from traditional credit crises Why many indicators point to a new bull market rather than a bear The role of sentiment…

People in this episode

Host: Excess Returns

Guest: Jim Paulsen

Topics covered

• macro environment
• economic indicators
• market sentiment
• bull market vs bear market
• consumer behavior
• oil prices
• interest rates

Keywords

• Walmart Indicator
• economic growth
• recession risk
• private credit
• market rotation
• corporate profits
• liquidity

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Walmart, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Paulsen Perspectives

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