About this episode

Marko and Jacob discuss geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Taiwan's shifting political landscape, and the implications of recent US political developments.

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot (02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter (04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions (05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold (07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth (14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives (16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance (18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits (22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers (28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity (31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains (38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term (39:05) - Energy Transit Logic (40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism (41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades (42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout (43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise (44:49) - US Forces…

More episodes of Geopolitical Cousins

• The Supply Hole · April 24, 2026 · 1h 30m
• Strategic Vibe Reserves · April 21, 2026 · 1h 22m
• Bombing for Peace · April 18, 2026 · 1h 27m
• The Spice Must Flow! · April 1, 2026 · 1h 18m
• Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior · March 27, 2026 · 1h 46m
• Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation · March 13, 2026 · 1h 22m

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