The Supply Hole

The Supply Hole

From Geopolitical Cousins by Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic

April 24, 2026 · 1h 30m · Season 1 · Episode 57

About this episode

Rory Johnston discusses the implications of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global oil supply and market dynamics.

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston (01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter (04:12) - The Light on Fire Game (07:52) - Where to Follow Rory (09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters (10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity (13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm (19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit (27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks (31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox (35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America (40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate (45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines (47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage (49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines (50:53) - Regime Change Off Table (52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation (59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand (01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks (01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent (01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning (01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy…

People in this episode

Hosts: Jacob Shapiro, Marko Papic

Guest: Rory Johnston

Topics covered

  • energy supply
  • market analysis
  • geopolitics
  • oil prices
  • Iran relations

Keywords

  • oil supply
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • energy experts
  • price spike
  • Iran leverage

Mentioned in this episode

Products: strategic reserves, Brent

Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Canada, Red Sea, Russia

More episodes of Geopolitical Cousins

Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Geopolitical Cousins podcast page.