Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock

About this episode

Amena Bakr discusses the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil production and global supply chains.

Amena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to just 5% of its pre-war levels. The sources indicate that even with an optimistic base case for normalization in August, clearing the backlog of 800+ trapped ships will likely take at least two additional months. Amena warns that the threat of maritime mines remains a strategic "wild card" that could extend the recovery timeline by up to six months. The discussion breaks down the "Iran Lane" management system and the controversial $2 million cryptocurrency tolls being reported by vessel owners seeking to bypass the blockade. With roughly 13 million barrels per day of production shut in, the discussion explores the physical damage to downstream assets and a potential five-year recovery timeline for Qatari LNG trains. Johnston and Amena address the market's underreaction to the crisis, citing the distorting effects of presidential social media posts and alleged price manipulation that has kept Brent near $100. Beyond the energy sector, the blockade is triggering a…

People in this episode

Host: Rory

Guest: Amena Bakr

Topics covered

• oil market
• maritime security
• global supply chains
• cryptocurrency tolls
• OPEC strategies
• energy production

Keywords

• Strait of Hormuz
• oil production
• maritime mines
• cryptocurrency tolls
• OPEC
• global supply chains
• Brent
• Qatari LNG
• market reaction

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Kpler

Products: Brent

Places: Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Qatar

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