Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic

About this episode

Adi Imsirovic discusses the complexities of the Brent oil market amidst significant disruptions and backwardation.

Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels per day of supply offline and extreme volatility across the curve, Imsirovic explains how oil pricing actually works beneath the surface—distinguishing between physical “dated” Brent and financial futures, and why the recent divergence between the two is not a market failure, but a reflection of timing, scarcity, and panic-driven demand for immediate barrels. The conversation dives into the structure of the Brent complex, including forward markets, CFDs, and the role of exchange-for-physical mechanisms that link paper and physical trading. Imsirovic argues that the record backwardation—at times reaching nearly thirty dollars between prompt and forward barrels—signals not just tightness, but outright panic in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure supply. These dynamics are further amplified by surging premiums for specific crude grades and growing dislocations between refinery margins and input costs. Finally, the discussion turns to what the futures curve is really signaling…

People in this episode

Host: Oil Ground Up

Guest: Adi Imsirovic

Topics covered

• oil trading
• Brent market
• backwardation
• physical vs financial
• market dynamics
• refinery margins

Keywords

• Brent market
• backwardation
• oil pricing
• physical trading
• futures curve
• refinery margins
• supply scarcity

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: OPEC

Books & works: Oil Ground Up

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