What prediction markets tell us about the future
From Reasonably Optimistic by The Washington Post
May 13, 2026 · 34 min
About this episode
Economist Robin Hanson discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets in forecasting and decision making.
Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions. Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved. Subscribe to The Washington Post here .
People in this episode
Host: Megan McArdle
Guest: Robin Hanson
Topics covered
- prediction markets
- forecasting
- decision making
- economics
- technology
Keywords
- prediction markets
- forecasting
- Robin Hanson
- Megan McArdle
- decision making
- economics
- technology
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: The Washington Post
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