Reasonably Optimistic

The streaming revolution promised viewers an endless library of movies and shows for less than cable. Netflix led that charge, becoming the era's dominant streaming service. That transformation upended the economics that made television such a reliable business and created an industry with more competition, higher costs and a constant fight to keep viewers from canceling.Host Megan McArdle breaks down what Netflix’s recent leadership shake-up signals — and why the company that transformed television may have to learn some lessons from the old system.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, users can bet on elections, interest-rate cuts, corporate earnings and almost any question with an answer that will eventually be revealed. Those bets can produce a different kind of forecast than a traditional poll. But what happens when betting on everything becomes easier and more socially acceptable?Host Megan McArdle is joined by Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University and one of the earliest advocates for prediction markets. They discuss how betting markets compare with polls and experts, the risks of manipulation and insider trading, whether people should be able to bet on elections and wars, and what it would take for prediction markets to become a useful tool for business and government.This episode was originally published on May 13, 2026.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

The American Dream can feel farther away than ever. Housing is expensive, good jobs seem harder to find and the people getting rich seem to be concentrated in a handful of big cities. But some of America’s biggest fortunes are being built far from the spotlight: by auto dealers, contractors, beverage distributors and the owners of the unglamorous businesses that keep everyday life running. So who are these overlooked millionaires — and what do they tell us about opportunity in America?Host Megan McArdle is joined by Owen Zidar, a professor at Princeton University and co-author of “The Everywhere Millionaire.” They discuss the hidden world of private-business wealth, why early work experience matters and how retiring boomers may create new opportunities for the next generation to buy and run America’s small businesses.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

A viral debate over bringing iced coffee to a job interview may seem trivial. But it points to a bigger divide over what employers are looking for when college degrees, cover letters and résumés reveal less than they used to.Host Megan McArdle explains why workplace norms still matter, why an interview can be one of the few ways applicants can stand out and what Gen Z workers miss when they begin their careers remotely. She also makes the case for giving young people a little grace.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

What do you do when your research leads to a conclusion that challenges conventional wisdom? You can publish it and risk the backlash — or quietly bury the findings and move on to safer work. The Carob Trust Prize, a new $1 million award, aims to change that calculation by rewarding academics whose research challenges prevailing orthodoxies and withstands scrutiny. But can money really make telling the truth less costly?Harvard professor Roland Fryer co-founded the prize after facing that choice himself. He joins host Megan McArdle to discuss the experiences that shaped his work and the pressures that discourage scholars from pursuing unpopular findings. They also examine his research on racial achievement gaps and failing schools, as well as Nikole Hannah-Jones’s recent New York Times essay about sending her daughter to a high-poverty, segregated public school.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

No one likes the idea of being surveilled. That concern is fueling a nationwide backlash against Flock cameras, the automated license plate readers police use to find stolen vehicles, track suspects and locate missing people. Critics see their rapid spread as the beginnings of a mass surveillance network. Supporters say they reduce crime and save lives. So can communities keep the benefits without sacrificing privacy?Host Megan McArdle is joined by Charles Fain Lehman, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and senior editor at City Journal. They examine what Flock cameras actually see, the data behind the headlines and whether safeguards can prevent a useful tool from becoming a threat to civil liberties.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

More than six centuries ago, the Black Death wiped out nearly half of England’s population. Suddenly, workers had more power, wealthy landowners had less, and the old social order began to crack. When the ruling class tried to force that order back into place, anger erupted into the Peasants’ Revolt of 1381 — a political crisis that feels startlingly familiar today, dramatized in the new film “The Uprising.”Host Megan McArdle is joined by historian Dan Jones, author of “Summer of Blood,” who was a consultant on the film. They explore how a pandemic transformed England’s economy, why legitimate grievances spiraled into violence, the tension between natural justice and written law, and what happens when elites stop listening to the people they govern.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

Public confidence in higher education has been eroding for years. Rising costs, uncertain job prospects and political conflict have led many people to question whether colleges still serve the public. But trying to fix that by slashing research funding or putting campuses under tighter government control could destroy a lot of what makes them valuable.Host Megan McArdle argues that universities must confront their credibility crisis by recruiting a wider range of viewpoints, stepping back from institutional politics and recommitting to open debate. Meanwhile, conservatives must decide whether they want to reform higher education or merely punish it.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.