Regulatory Capture Comes for the Labs

Regulatory Capture Comes for the Labs

July 1, 2026 · 32 min

About this episode

The episode discusses regulatory challenges in AI, Oracle's recent struggles, and the implications for healthcare and energy markets.

Mike, Hunt, and Jason run the exhibits fast, then dig into the AI buildout math that keeps getting worse, Oracle’s brutal week, and a healthcare block anchored by Lilly’s 340B fight. As always, download the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Oil has settled into a ~$70 floor with backwardation nearly gone (~$3 now vs. the $90 near-month / $75 twelve-month spread at the Iran peak), and Hunt reads the Strait of Hormuz drone tit-for-tat as an indefinite status quo gated by cargo insurance, not Iranian intent, while Northeast heat firms nat gas as power prices spike toward 15c/kWh. * The White House is clearing Anthropic’s Fable-05 (announced today) while still restricting OpenAI’s latest, a few-weeks delay the hosts dismiss as trivial and as the regulatory capture the labs originally lobbied for, with no real risk of Chinese models leapfrogging on the pause. * AI data center cost has jumped to $65–75B per gigawatt (up from $30–50B earlier this year) with memory alone now 30–40% of the build per Gavin Baker, and a structural memory shortage (Micron plus the two Koreans running low capex) plus rumored TSMC price hikes leave no one immune and make the…

People in this episode

Hosts: Mike, Hunt, Jason

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Keywords

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Oracle, OpenAI, Anthropic, Lilly, Micron, TSMC

Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz

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