Weekend Update - W2626
About this episode
This episode discusses the transformation of the memory market and Micron's significant business changes.
▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Week Memory Stopped Being a Commodity For forty years, memory was the worst business in technology. Brutally cyclical, structurally commoditized, a graveyard of balance sheets that overbuilt into every upcycle and got buried in the glut that followed. You did not own memory. You rented it, for one cycle, and you got out before the supply caught up. This week Micron told you that business is over — and the people still pricing it as a cycle are fighting the last war. Start with the number that actually matters, and it is not the print. Yes, Micron guided next quarter to fifty billion dollars against a Street modeling forty-three, and yes, the market cap crossed a trillion. ¹ Spikes like that are exactly what the cyclical bears are built to fade. The thing that should stop you is buried below the headline: sixteen legally binding take-or-pay contracts, locking in roughly a fifth of Micron’s DRAM capacity through the end of the decade. ² Take-or-pay is the language of pipelines and LNG terminals, not chips. It is what a supplier signs when the buyer is more afraid of not having the product than of overpaying for it. That…
People in this episode
Host: Top Mark Capital
Topics covered
- memory market
- technology business
- capital cycles
- Micron performance
- DRAM contracts
- investment strategies
Keywords
- memory
- Micron
- DRAM
- capital cycle
- commoditization
- investment
- technology
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Micron
Products: DRAM
Places: LNG
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