Risk On: The Macro Environment for Moving Metals Prices
About this episode
Jason Kaplan discusses the macro environment affecting metals prices in 2026, focusing on risk premiums, tariffs, and supply dynamics.
In the first episode of season 6 of The Decisive podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Jason Kaplan unpacks why 2026 is shaping up as a "risk-on" commodities environment—with steady but subdued global growth, rising volatility, and a deepening flight to safety that's pushing risk premiums across key markets. Jason, a senior economist in the Pricing and Purchasing team, connects macroeconomic signals to real-world pricing and trade flows, including how tariffs and regionalization are re-splitting markets after years of prices moving in lockstep. With a year of tariff data now visible, Jason details how Section 232-era aluminum tariffs and downstream copper-product tariffs are showing up in U.S. prices, collapsing imports, and widening regional differentials—with a caveat that the full cost burden for U.S. manufacturers may still be ahead. On the metals side, the episode dives into copper's structurally tight supply picture, the unique stress points in aluminum's midstream, and the U.S. Midwest premium, plus what's driving turning points in nickel, tin, and zinc. Finally, recorded just as geopolitical tensions escalated, Jason discusses why the published forecast does not…
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