State of Shock: Economic Impacts of Middle East Conflict

About this episode

This episode examines the economic impacts of geopolitical conflict on the fragile energy market and the resulting macroeconomic challenges.

The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market? In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced. What You'll Learn: The Macro Outlook Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession. The Great Divide Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures. Central Bank Dilemmas Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation…

Topics covered

• economic impacts
• geopolitical conflict
• energy market
• macroeconomic forecasts
• inflation
• central bank policies

Keywords

• global economy
• GDP growth
• oil-exporting nations
• oil-importing nations
• inflation projections
• supply shocks
• central banks
• economic downturn

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Places: Saudi Arabia, UAE, India, Egypt, Philippines

More episodes of The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

• Governance Stress Tests: Key Elections in 2026 · April 25, 2026 · 44 min
• How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing · April 18, 2026 · 15 min
• Risk On: The Macro Environment for Moving Metals Prices · April 11, 2026 · 22 min
• Logistics Finds a Way: Lessons in Supply Chain Resilience · March 28, 2026 · 18 min
• Critical Minerals at a Crossroads: Navigating Supply, Demand, and Geopolitics · March 21, 2026 · 45 min
• PMI in Focus: Turning Timely Economic Signals Into Strategy · March 14, 2026 · 20 min