About this episode

Henrik Zeberg discusses the disconnect between market performance and economic indicators, suggesting a structural recession is underway.

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the…

People in this episode

Host: Julia La Roche

Guest: Henrik Zeberg

Topics covered

• market analysis
• recession signals
• inflation
• investment strategies
• economic indicators

Keywords

• recession
• inflation
• investment
• economic indicators
• Henrik Zeberg

Sponsors

Kalshi, Monetary Metals

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: SwissBlock

Books & works: The Monetary House of Cards

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