#388 Chris Whalen: One Rate Hike Coming, Iran Peace Unlikely, Double-Digit Inflation Inevitable
About this episode
Chris Whalen discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike, the situation in Iran, and the inevitability of double-digit inflation.
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are…
People in this episode
Host: Julia La Roche
Guest: Chris Whalen
Topics covered
- Federal Reserve
- inflation
- Iran
- oil market
- economic slowdown
- real estate
Keywords
- rate hike
- inflation
- Iran peace
- oil stocks
- economic slowdown
- real estate hedging
- diesel prices
Sponsors
Monet
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Federal Reserve
Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, California
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- #391 Chris Whalen: $4 Trillion Private Credit Risk, Double-Digit Inflation & Housing's 2005 Warning
- #390 Ted Oakley: "It's Not a Normal Market" — A Generational Bear Could Cut Stocks 40%
- #389 Larry McDonald: A Market 'Rotten to the Core,' Gold to $6,500, and The Coming Credit Crisis
- #387 Danielle DiMartino Booth: No Rate Hike Coming, Labor Force Participation Collapsing, Stock Market Too Big To Fail
- #386 Michael Every: Economic Statecraft Changed Everything, Old Playbook Is Dead, New Era Begins
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