About this episode

Michael Every discusses the shift from traditional monetary policy to economic statecraft and its implications for global geopolitics.

Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets at Rabobank, presents a radical framework: everything is now about economic statecraft and geopolitics, not traditional monetary or fiscal policy, meaning central banks, interest rates, and economic structures are all subsets of national security objectives. Central bank models are broken because exogenous geopolitical supply shocks (Iran war, Ukraine, COVID) constantly disrupt equilibrium assumptions, and the old playbook of managing demand through one global interest rate no longer works in a fragmenting world with different sectors having different national security priorities. He warns the biggest risk is far more war ahead, specifically predicting Iran war will resume after the midterms because tolls, sanctions, uranium, and Lebanon remain unresolved—Iran is losing leverage as oil flows increase and the world moves on, so it will need to "rock the boat" to regain attention. Interest rates will trend higher due to massive fiscal pressures on defense spending, reshoring, supply chain security, and infrastructure investment, and differential interest rates will emerge where sectors critical to national…

People in this episode

Host: Julia La Roche

Guest: Michael Every

Topics covered

• economic statecraft
• geopolitics
• central banks
• national security
• interest rates
• fiscal policy
• private sector innovation

Keywords

• economic statecraft
• geopolitics
• central banks
• interest rates
• national security
• fiscal pressures
• supply chain security

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Rabobank

Products: OpenAI, Intel

Places: Iran, Ukraine, Lebanon, Strait of Hormuz

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