Restaurant Labor Market 2026 - The $5,000 Cost of Understaffing
About this episode
Dr. Chad Moutray discusses the 2026 restaurant labor market and the financial implications of understaffing.
S2E10 NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray on the 2026 labor market, 122% turnover, and the price of running a shift short One missing employee can cost a restaurant $3,000 to $5,000 in lost sales over three months. That's one stat from the National Restaurant Association's new 2026 Hiring & Staffing report, and it's why we built a three-part mini-series around the labor market in restaurants. In Part 1, NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray joins Ricardo Belmar and Casey Golden to read the restaurant labor market in real time, recorded days after fresh JOLTS and monthly jobs data in June. The labor market has cooled from the Great Resignation into what economists now call the Great Stay, and restaurant staffing looks easier on paper: understaffing fell from 78% of operators in 2021 to 22% in 2025. Chad explains why that 22% still bleeds real money, how a single empty shift cuts sales 7 to 8% per meal period, and why a 122% turnover rate means the average restaurant replaces its entire staff every year. What you'll learn in this episode: Where the restaurant labor market stands after the latest jobs data (48,000 restaurant jobs added in May, 220,000 over 12 months). Why job…
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