Ep. 178: The attack on Iran
From Australia in the World by Darren Lim
March 2, 2026 · 36 min · Episode 178
About this episode
Darren discusses the implications of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the potential for regime change amidst a weakened Iranian government.
In (yet another) emergency episode, Darren offers eight initial thoughts on the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. Inside Iran, the question is whether airpower and decapitation can deliver regime change when the historical record says they never have — though this case may be an outlier given how weakened the regime already was. Regionally, Iran's “drizzle” retaliation strategy is targeting Gulf states and depleting expensive US interceptors, while the munitions being consumed come directly at the expense of what the US would need in a Taiwan contingency. Globally, no country or institution has any agency to shape what happens next — and China may be the quiet winner simply by being predictable while Washington lurches between crises. On international order, Darren explores how US deterrence is simultaneously stronger on willingness but weaker on material capacity, and why the Venezuela-Greenland-Iran sequence is normalising a new and dangerous operating model for the hegemon. On Australia, he thinks the government made the right call. He finishes by asking what we're learning about Trump's emerging “anti-Powell Doctrine”, what the erosion of…
People in this episode
Host: Darren Lim
Topics covered
- Iran
- US strikes
- Israeli strikes
- regime change
- deterrence
- international order
Keywords
- Ayatollah Khamenei
- retaliation strategy
- Gulf states
- Taiwan contingency
- Trump's anti-Powell Doctrine
Mentioned in this episode
Books & works: Military briefing:, On bombing Iran
Places: Iran, US, Gulf, Taiwan, China, Washington, Venezuela, Greenland, Australia, U.S.
More episodes of Australia in the World
- Ep. 183: Hormuz—the new nuclear · April 21, 2026 · 1h 6m
- Ep. 182: Another wild 48 hours on Iran, plus the Australian lens · April 1, 2026 · 1h 3m
- Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran · March 30, 2026 · 15 min
- Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end? · March 22, 2026 · 49 min
- Ep. 179: Iran — Two weeks in · March 15, 2026 · 48 min
- Ep. 177: Tariffs, power, and the US Supreme Court · February 27, 2026 · 26 min
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