Australia in the World

Darren is back to do (yet another) solo episode on Iran. This week, the United States and Iran did a deal, Trump put pen to a physical copy at Versailles, and the war looked like it might be — in a narrow sense— over. At least, this is what Darren sought to analyse when he first recorded on Saturday 20 June. But before he could publish the following day, Iran had announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again — saying Israel’s actions in Lebanon were a violation — while Washington insisted it was open and Vance headed to Switzerland. So the episode now opens with a short update (recorded on Sun 21 June) on that split-screen before the main recording. The good news (for Darren) was that the overnight news, if anything, sharpened his argument. Across eight points Darren covers: (i) what happened and what they actually signed (boiled down: an agreement to negotiate a real agreement within sixty days); (ii) why the US did a deal now now — Hoover, the markets, the midterms, and Trump more or less admitting it out loud; (iii) who won (Iran) and why; (iv) why Iran could still lose the peace by overplaying Hormuz; (v) why Israel is the big loser; and then finishing off with (vi) the optimistic case for what happens next, (vii) the pessimistic case, and (viii) going back to check the receipts on the five lessons he set out in Episode 184, plus three new ones: that the strait was reopened by payment not force, that energy systems impose political clocks, and that it was regional states, not the great institutions, who helped supply the exit. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Jonathan Lemire, "Trump in Defeat", The Atlantic, 17 June 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/06/trump-defeat-iran-war/687566/ Adam Rasgon et al, "How the US–Iran Deal Came Down to the Wire", New York Times, 17 June 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/us/politics/us-iran-deal-trump.html Nate Swanson, "Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace," Foreign Affairs , 18 June 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-won-war-may-lose-peace long gam The Long Game (podcast), “Did America Lose the Iran War? (w/ Ambassador Wendy Sherman)”, 19 June 2026: https://substack.com/home/post/p-202627995 Ali Vaez, “America and Iran Have an Agreement. And 60 Days to Prevent the Next War”, Time, 16 June 2026: https://time.com/article/2026/06/15/america-iran-peace-agreement-prevent-next-war/ John Hudson, “U.S. bears brunt of Israel’s missile defense, Pentagon assessments show”, Washington Post, 21 May 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/21/us-bears-brunt-israels-missile-defense-pentagon-assessments-show/ Press Conference: Donald Trump Holds a Press Conference at the G7 Summit in France - June 17, 2026: https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-g7-summit-evian-france-june-17-2026/ · US-Iran memorandum of understanding in full: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gy700j0eko

Eleven weeks into the U.S.-Iran war, the news cycle is relentless, but the strategic position has barely moved. Darren looks to step back from the weekly churn to lay out the five durable lessons of this conflict — the things that were becoming visible in March, that have held through April, that are still true in May, and that may well remain true for some time yet. The episode begins with a factual update: the collapse of Project Freedom, the trading of fire that neither side will call a ceasefire violation, Iran's 10 May counter-proposal demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's dismissal of it as "garbage," and the bombshell New York Times report that Iran has regained operational access to most of its missile capability — directly contradicting the administration's public narrative just as Trump leaves for his summit with Xi Jinping. The bulk of the episode then works through five structural lessons: Coercion doesn’t work if your adversary wants it more The geography in geo-economics—how Iran has demonstrated a modern model of asymmetric power Both sides still prefer no deal to a deal, and Trump's overnight Truth Social post tells us more than he realises Policy competence actually matters a lot The decaying pillars of the international order, with the oil market as case study Darren closes with the model he keeps coming back to: what actually constrains Donald Trump. With JP Morgan predicting Hormuz will reopen in June on inventory grounds, the institutional architecture that has buffered the shock running out of room, and Republican Senate primaries clearing through May and June, the question is whether material reality and the political calendar finally converge to produce a binding constraint on a president who has resisted almost every other form. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, "U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities," New York Times, 12 May 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html Sudarsan Raghavan, "The Art of the Ceasefire," The New Yorker, 12 May 2026: https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-art-of-the-ceasefire International Crisis Group, "Iran Crisis Monitor #5," 12 May 2026: https://www.crisisgroup.org/bnt/middle-east-north-africa/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/iran-crisis-monitor-5 Danny Citrinowicz, "How the War Saved the Iranian Regime," Foreign Affairs, 29 April 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-war-saved-iranian-regime Gregory Brew, "America Will Pay Dearly for Its Energy Arrogance," New York Times, 2 May 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/opinion/trump-us-oil-crisis-strait-of-hormuz.html Jason Bordoff, "If OPEC Falls Apart, It'll Cost Us All," New York Times, 6 May 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/opinion/opec-oil-markets-trump.html

Darren is joined by returning guest Richard Maude to unpack what Australian foreign policy looks like in late 2025. The conversation centres on Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s recent AIIA speech, which Darren argues—mostly with Richard’s agreement—marks a clear evolution in Australia’s foreign policy doctrine. The traditional three pillars — alliance, region, and rules — have been replaced by a new framework, the "Four Rs": Region, Relationships, Rules, and Resilience. The discussion explores what this shift reveals about how Canberra sees the world today, and what it tells us about Australia’s strategic priorities as the international environment becomes more volatile. Together, they assess how well the government is executing each of the “Four Rs” in practice — from strengthening ties across Southeast Asia and the Pacific, to managing the alliance with an unpredictable Washington, stabilising relations with Beijing, and linking foreign policy more overtly with domestic resilience. They ask whether Australia is being suitably ambitious in shaping the regional security environment, or whether it risks becoming over-focused on Southeast Asia at the expense of alliance leadership and broader coordination with partners like Japan, Korea and Europe. Darren and Richard also grapple with Australia–China relations. Is Canberra being too cautious in public language — or sensibly risk-averse? Darren frames the question as whether the greater risk currently lies in under-reacting to the threat posed by China, or in over-reacting. And how should Australia manage economic dependence on China given the limits of diversification and the “iron laws” of trade? The fourth R is resilience, and they discuss whether tying domestic policy to foreign policy is a strength or a political trap. They consider how resilience language enables governments to justify hard economic choices, while also warning against overselling national security policy as economic strategy. Finally, Darren and Richard look ahead to 2026. Richard nominates three global questions to watch closely: the trajectory of US–China relations, the fate of Ukraine, and whether anything remains of the liberal international project. Darren adds his own focal points: Australia’s critical minerals strategy, Europe’s struggle with Chinese economic leverage, and the political durability of Trump’s dominance ahead of the US midterms. A wide-ranging episode on doctrine, diplomacy and domestic politics — and what it all means for Australia navigating a world that feels, as Richard once put it, "completely stuffed". Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard Maude (bio): https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Penny Wong, “AIIA Gala Dinner Keynote Address”, 17 November 2025: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/aiia-gala-dinner-keynote-address Darren Lim and Hannah Nelson, “From Three Strands to Four Rs: The Evolution of Australian Foreign Policy”, Australian Outlook, 21 November 2025: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/from-three-strands-to-four-rs-the-evolution-of-australian-foreign-policy/ Penny Wong, “Speech to the ANU National Security College “Securing our Future”, 9 April 2024: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-anu-national-security-college-securing-our-future Allan Gyngell, Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment Heather Smith, “Australia and Economic Cold War – Drifting into the New Paradigm”, AIIA 2025 National Conference Address, 17 November 2025: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/australia-and-economic-cold-war-drifting-into-the-new-paradigm/ Penny Wong, TV interview, ABC Insiders (with David Speers), 16 November 2025: https://www.for

The much-anticipated face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump has happened, not in the Oval Office but the Cabinet Room of the White House. The PM will be very pleased with how it went, with only one major casualty – embarrassment for Australia’s US Ambassador Kevin Rudd, after past tweets critical of the president were brought up, creating some awkwardness. To discuss the dynamics and outcomes of the meeting Darren welcomes Dr. Charles Edel to the podcast, a long overdue guest, and the best-placed individual anywhere to provide insight into these events, and the broader alliance relationship. Why was the meeting needed? While widely agreed to have gone well, what exactly made the meeting a success? What is the status of AUKUS now, and what about critical minerals? And, while he did not have a good time at the meeting, how has Kevin Rudd been an essential part of the process and key to its success? Charles is a senior adviser and the inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He previously taught at the University of Sydney, where he was also a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. Prior to that, Charles was a professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and served on the U.S. secretary of state’s Policy Planning Staff. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Charles Edel (bio): https://www.csis.org/people/charles-edel Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel, “The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence”, CSIS Australia Chair Report, August 2025: https://www.csis.org/analysis/aukus-inflection-seizing-opportunity-deliver-deterrence Annabel Crabbe, “When Donald Trump was ready to take his pound of flesh, Kevin Rudd was here to help”, ABC News, 21 October: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-21/trump-albanese-meeting-rudd-pound-of-flesh/105916336 Australian Industry Group, “Developing industry capability and partnerships for AUKUS Pillar 2”, Report, August 2025: https://www.aigroup.com.au/globalassets/news/reports/2025/ai_group_spg_report_aukus_pillar-ii.pdf Trent Dalton, Gravity let me go, (4th estate, 2025): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9781460713334/gravity-let-me-go/

Former Victorian Premier Dan Andrews made headlines when he was snapped in a picture with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, amongst others, at China’s recent military parade. While Andrews’ activities were puzzling, they also raise bigger questions around both the opportunities and the limits of Australia’s bilateral relationship with China. Will Glasgow, The Australian newspaper’s North Asia Correspondent, based in Beijing, joins Darren for this episode. Will is winner of the Keith McDonald Award for Business Journalist of the Year and previously worked at The Australian Financial Review. The conversation begins with Will’s own story in his current role, beginning in Beijing in early 2020, then leaving China and reporting from Taipei, before returning to Beijing in 2024. The main focus however is the bilateral relationship, both from the perspective of Canberra and Beijing, but also from Australian states, especially Victoria, where Dan Andrews was Premier, and Western Australia. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Will Glasgow (bio): https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/will-glasgow Will Glasgow, “China’s warning to Australian delegation over ‘two-faced’ policy”, The Australian, 20 Sep 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/beijings-warning-to-canberra-delegation-over-twofaced-policy/news-story/327ce23188ec4ed7e607e2f066ab010e Will Glasgow, “Australia wined, dined and hectored on Xi’s diplomatic conveyor belt”, The Australian, 13 Sep 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/wined-dined-and-hectored-on-xis-diplomatic-conveyor-belt/news-story/84d5771d3b9c925797850baf29c1627b Will Glasgow, “Should Australian correspondents be based in Xi’s China?”, The Australian, 22 Jul 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/should-australian-correspondents-be-based-in-xis-china/news-story/7b2375eb1343726f0d1a3cc5ea698e74 Geremie Barmé, “In a retro mood: The ethical dilemmas of cutting a deal with Xi Jinping’s China”, The China Project, 15 Sep 2023: https://thechinaproject.com/2023/09/15/in-a-retro-mood-the-ethical-dilemmas-of-cutting-a-deal-with-xi-jinpings-china/ Foreign Policy Live (podcast), “Adam Tooze on the End of Development”, 19 Sep 2025: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/foreign-policy-live/adam-tooze-on-the-end-of-development/ Josh Rogin, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century, Harper Collins (2021): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780358449348/chaos-under-heaven/ Tanner Greer, “Bullets and Ballots: The Legacy of Charlie Kirk”, The Scholar’s Stage, 14 Sep 2025: https://scholars-stage.org/bullets-and-ballots-the-legacy-of-charlie-kirk/ Fuschia Dunlop, Invitation to a Banquet: The Story of Chinese Food, Penguin (2024): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/invitation-to-a-banquet-9780141997216 Qiu Xiaolong, The Inspector Chen Series: https://www.qiuxiaolong.com/books_inspectorChen.php The Chinese Mayor (documentary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w_LSNrpKPc

In Darren’s own research, topics like tariffs, industrial policy and the decaying rules-based economic order are a daily focus. On these issues and many more relating to the global economy, financial markets, economic security, and US-China geoeconomic rivalry, there is no-one whose expertise and judgment Darren respects more than that of Brad Setser, today’s guest. In a conversation recorded on 1 September, three big themes are canvassed: (i) tariffs, (ii) China, and (iii) Australia’s position in a fraying economic order. As the hosts of the “Odd Lots” podcast would say, Brad is the ‘perfect’ guest, and Darren could not be more thrilled. What is motivating Trump, and what could constrain him? Which country has negotiated the best deal? Is China’s export-driven economic model locked in? Could other countries rein in Beijing’s overcapacity? Is the rules-based economic order finished? Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. Bred served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022 and as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the U.S. Treasury from 2011 to 2015. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Brad Setser (bio): https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser Odd Lots (podcast), "Liz Truss on the 'Doom Loop' Engulfing the UK Economy", 29 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyQOEJ38kW8 Jonathon Sine, “Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire: A review of Dan Wang's new book Breakneck”, Cogitations (substack), 28 August 2025: https://www.cogitations.co/p/litigation-nation-engineering-empire Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (Harper Collins, 2020): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/ Mark Kurlansky, Salt: A world history (Penguin, 2003): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/

It’s time for another tariff episode, and Darren is joined by returning guest Corbin Duncan, a journalist with The Economist (and valued Australia in the world team member) to talk through an avalanche of tariff news. Apologies for the poor quality of audio from Darren’s end. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research, co-hosting and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Security Economics (podcast), “Trump's new global tariff regime is here!”, 7 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-St1M0DRcU Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377 || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Triple J, Hottest 100 of Australian Songs: https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/countdown/hottest100/1-100 Sam Tanenhaus, Buckley: The Life and the Revolution That Changed America, Penguin Random House: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176399/buckley-by-sam-tanenhaus/ Jospeh Torigian, The Party's Interests Come First:The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping, Standford University Press, https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first

Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s attack on Iran that began over the weekend, could be the beginning of something very big, and very bad. Or it could lead to the downfall of a regime who few would mourn, not to mention a reduced risk of nuclear proliferation. It’s too early to say, but in the spirit of exploring the dynamics of the issue Darren is joined again by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC to talk through the last few days and what they might mean. Along the way, Stephen explains the possible implications of President Trump cancelling his meeting with PM Albanese at the G7 to return to Washington. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links “Wong outlines 'very perilous situation' in Middle East | Insiders | ABC News” (video), 15 June 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vumMIJO7LQ