Ep. 183: Hormuz—the new nuclear

About this episode

Darren Lim analyzes the implications of the US-Israeli war against Iran and the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of nuclear deterrence.

Eight weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the ceasefire is about to expire and the second round of negotiations is supposed to be happening this week in Islamabad. Darren uses the framework of “war-as-bargaining” to make sense of an extraordinary three weeks—the threats, the ceasefire, the collapse of the first talks, the blockade, Iran's brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its near-immediate closure—and argues that the conflict has transformed Iran's strategic calculus in ways that make control of the Strait a functional substitute for nuclear weapons. The episode then works through what kind of deal is actually possible, why the Trump administration’s rejection of process makes that deal hard to deliver, and why the West more broadly is going to have to develop the psychological capacity to live with outcomes in which adversaries get to enjoy strategic successes. Darren finishes with a moral accounting of Trump's threats to annihilate Iranian civilisation, and a post-script on what he still believes despite it all. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory…

People in this episode

Host: Darren Lim

Topics covered

• US-Israeli war
• Iran
• Strait of Hormuz
• nuclear weapons
• ceasefire
• negotiations

Keywords

• war-as-bargaining
• strategic calculus
• Trump administration
• psychological capacity

Mentioned in this episode

Products: Arms and Influence, Bombing to Win

Books & works: Australia in the World, Arms and Influence, Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War, Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump's War, The Ezra Klein Show, The West Wing, They'll Like Us When We Win”

Places: Hormuz, Iran, Islamabad, the Strait of Hormuz, Strait, West, America, U.S., US

More episodes of Australia in the World

• Ep. 182: Another wild 48 hours on Iran, plus the Australian lens · April 1, 2026 · 1h 3m
• Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran · March 30, 2026 · 15 min
• Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end? · March 22, 2026 · 49 min
• Ep. 179: Iran — Two weeks in · March 15, 2026 · 48 min
• Ep. 178: The attack on Iran · March 2, 2026 · 36 min
• Ep. 177: Tariffs, power, and the US Supreme Court · February 27, 2026 · 26 min