Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end?

About this episode

Darren analyzes the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran through the lens of international relations theory, exploring the challenges to war termination and potential outcomes.

Three weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren looks to international relations theory — particularly the bargaining and war termination frameworks associated with James Fearon — to explain why this conflict is so resistant to ending. He organises his thinking around two conditions for war termination: the existence of a mutually acceptable deal, and a credible mechanism for enforcing it. Neither condition is met, and the war is actively making both harder to achieve. Both sides are pursuing cost imposition, but with incompatible visions of what peace looks like. The US is destroying Iran’s military capacity; Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure. Darren examines why Trump’s coercive credibility has been undermined by the South Pars episode, why Iran’s energy war may be hardening rather than softening its neighbours’ resolve, and what Oman’s foreign minister’s extraordinary public intervention reveals about Gulf anger at both Iran and the United States. The episode offers two speculative theories for how the war might end — one centring on Trump’s psychology and capacity for narrative reinvention, the other on whether China could…

People in this episode

Host: Darren Lim

Topics covered

• Iran conflict
• US-Israeli relations
• international relations theory
• war termination
• Gulf energy infrastructure

Keywords

• James Fearon
• cost imposition
• Trump's coercive credibility
• China's role
• Gulf anger

Mentioned in this episode

Books & works: Australia in the World, Rationalist Explanations for War, Theories of Victory, Ones and Tooze, Economic Impact of Iran War, The Disappearing Off-Ramp in Iran,”, The Long Game

Places: Iran, US, the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf, South Pars, Oman, the United States, China, Qatar, America

More episodes of Australia in the World

• Ep. 183: Hormuz—the new nuclear · April 21, 2026 · 1h 6m
• Ep. 182: Another wild 48 hours on Iran, plus the Australian lens · April 1, 2026 · 1h 3m
• Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran · March 30, 2026 · 15 min
• Ep. 179: Iran — Two weeks in · March 15, 2026 · 48 min
• Ep. 178: The attack on Iran · March 2, 2026 · 36 min
• Ep. 177: Tariffs, power, and the US Supreme Court · February 27, 2026 · 26 min