They Don't Want the Smoke

About this episode

Marko and Jacob discuss the implications of the Iran-Israel conflict and its effects on oil prices and geopolitical stability.

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello! (01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap (02:15) - Trump War Quotes (02:54) - Menu Metaphor (04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity (07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet (09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic (12:35) - Iran Succession Shock (14:43) - Attack Data and B52s (16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz (20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters (24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk (27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario (30:37) - Trump and Market Downside (32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy (36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building (38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency (40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines (41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace (43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down (45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters (47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran (51:46) - Stock Versus Flow…

People in this episode

Hosts: Marko Papic, Jacob Shapiro

Topics covered

• Iran-Israel conflict
• oil markets
• geopolitics
• Trump's statements
• regime stability
• energy security

Keywords

• Iran
• Israel
• oil prices
• Trump
• geopolitics
• Strait of Hormuz
• regime stability
• energy security

Mentioned in this episode

Places: Iran, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Vietnam, China, Taiwan, India, Iraq

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