“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio
About this episode
Jared Dillian discusses his bullish outlook on bonds and shares insights on various market sectors.
Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession with deficits and inflation a "mind virus," notes that the $2 trillion deficit is only 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010, and points out that everyone measures bond supply while nobody measures demand. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold, calling 5.2–5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal, especially with payrolls deteriorating, JOLTS and PMIs rolling over, and the market still pricing meaningful odds of a hike. On equities, Dillian walked the top 50 S&P charts and sees semis, healthcare, and financials topping — the broker-dealers look worst — while Intel and Oracle look like they're bottoming. He and Jack debate whether the semiconductor washout is over, disagree on where the leverage actually sits (Jack cites Vanda data showing retail positioning in semis near two-year lows), and Dillian warns that the Situational Awareness blowup was the Bear Stearns of this cycle, not the Lehman. He explains why he thinks AI is a…
More episodes of Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
- What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails (It's Worse Than a Bank) | Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato on How Private Equity Turned Life Insurance Into a Taxpayer Backstop
- The Certainty Premium: What’s Driving the Tech Sector Divergence? | Jeff Keller
- The Commodity Bull Market Is Broadening | Jim Wiederhold on Copper, Grains, and Bloomberg Commodity Index
- Time to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren Pies
- Is Private Equity Broken? Why the Buyside’s Problems Are Making 2026 “The Year of the Banker” | High Yield Harry
- Why Bessent Blinked | Luke Gromen on Doubling of Treasury Buyback Plan to Tame Long-End Yields
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Monetary Matters with Jack Farley podcast page.