Time to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren Pies
About this episode
Warren Pies discusses macro risks affecting the stock market and his investment strategy adjustments.
Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector. Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters Follow Warren Pies on X: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube…
People in this episode
Host: Max Wiethe
Guest: Warren Pies
Topics covered
- macro risks
- stock market
- Federal Reserve
- AI build-out
- investment strategy
- seasonal market trends
Keywords
- equity risk
- cash allocation
- rate hike
- political pressure
- AI impact
- market trends
Sponsors
Caliban AI
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: 3Fourteen Research, Caliban AI, Anthropic, Other People's Money
Products: Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF, H200 GPU
More episodes of Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
- What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails (It's Worse Than a Bank) | Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato on How Private Equity Turned Life Insurance Into a Taxpayer Backstop
- “I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio
- The Certainty Premium: What’s Driving the Tech Sector Divergence? | Jeff Keller
- The Commodity Bull Market Is Broadening | Jim Wiederhold on Copper, Grains, and Bloomberg Commodity Index
- Is Private Equity Broken? Why the Buyside’s Problems Are Making 2026 “The Year of the Banker” | High Yield Harry
- Why Bessent Blinked | Luke Gromen on Doubling of Treasury Buyback Plan to Tame Long-End Yields
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Monetary Matters with Jack Farley podcast page.