The Probability of Possibility | 9 to FI 034 | 9 to FI Podcast
From 9 to FI - Financial Independence Conversations by Elliot and Josh
March 16, 2026 · 47 min · Season 1 · Episode 34
About this episode
Josh and Elliot discuss their recent Las Vegas trip while exploring financial independence topics such as spending, budgeting, and investment strategies.
Josh Recaps a Two-Week Las Vegas Trip as Josh and Elliot Discuss FIRE Spending, the 4% Rule, and ACA Subsidy CliffsJosh and Elliot record an off-the-cuff episode to keep their weekly podcast goal, with Josh recapping a two-week Las Vegas trip focused on concerts (Def Leppard and two long 311 sets), hiking, and other entertainment rather than heavy gambling, though a brief roulette/blackjack run with his son ended in losing winnings. Josh notes dining out cost nearly $2,000 over two weeks for a group that sometimes totaled five people, prompting broader FIRE discussions about tracking true annual spending, budgeting “guardrails,” and sequence-of-returns risk. Josh shares that early 2026 expense tracking suggests $80–90K annual spend rather than a guessed $60K, affecting reliance on the 4% rule. They discuss withdrawal cadence, investor policy statements, 72(t) vs Roth conversion ladders, and Josh’s concern about ACA subsidy cliffs around ~$84K MAGI given rental income and tax-deferred assets. Elliot updates on planning a France move, uncertain timing, remote-work approval, and whether to sell or rent their house.00:00 Back From Vegas00:56 Concerts And Hiking03:16 Roulette And…
People in this episode
Hosts: Josh, Elliot
Topics covered
- FIRE Spending
- 4% Rule
- ACA Subsidy Cliffs
- Expense Tracking
- Withdrawal Strategy
- Budgeting
- Market Mindset
Keywords
- FIRE
- 4% Rule
- ACA Subsidy
- Expense Tracking
- Budgeting
- Withdrawal Strategy
- Market Drops
Mentioned in this episode
Places: Las Vegas, France
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