Arms Control Wonk

It's been a long time, we shouldnt have left you, but we got a dope pod to step too. Or at least we think so. After a brief hiatus, Aaron and Jeffrey return to discuss the latest from the Iran war and what it means for arms control. It ends with Jeffrey geeking out on Dark Eagle, the missile CENTCOM wants and Jeffrey is obsessed with Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have opinions. The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wonks view or interact with missile defenses, conceptually, as we move towards a potential major expansion of US missile defenses. We should do a watch party. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn't, and what it all mean. Hint: Allies should stand up their own targeting capabilities. Watch the video episode here! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran's pathway back to the bomb, and why they're both irritated with the "fix it or nix it crowd." Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

In what seems like clockwork, India and Pakistan fought an "almost war" recently, prompting concerns about the risk of nuclear war. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to talk about the crisis, the meaning of deterrence, and how it worked during this recent flare up. Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down for their first video podcast to discuss the cost of Brilliant Swarm, the name du moment of Brilliant Pebbles, aka space based missile defense. Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Donald Tusk — not the indulgent follow up to the perfect Fleetwood Mac Album Rumours — mused recently about the future of deterrence in Europe. The discussion reminds of the challenges of extended deterrence, the oh so very French debate about nuclear weapons and European security, and the vibe shift that has raised questions about the future US security guarantee. Links of Note: Building a Euro Deterrent: Easier Said Than Done, by Pranay Vaddi and Vipin Narang https://open.substack.com/pub/strategicsimplicity/p/building-a-euro-deterrent-easier?r=1l9z0c&utm_medium=ios Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The legendary Fred Kaplan joins Jeffrey to talk about his brand new novel, A Capital Calamity. Fred and Jeffrey talk through the Fred's experiences in nuclear strategy and the influences on his new novel, A Capital Calamity, from JFK's EXCOMM tapes, the MX basing debate, and the Jane Austen meets Dr. Strangelove comedy of DC manners and etiquette. Catch one of Fred's upcoming book readings for A Capital Calamity in DC and NYC, at the Union Market Politics & Prose on Saturday, October 26th and at Community Bookstore, Park Slope, Brooklyn, on Tuesday, October 29th. Fred Kaplan is a national security columnist for Slate. Former Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter for Boston Globe. Author of 7 books, including The Bomb, The Wizards of Armageddon, The Insurgents (Pulitzer Prize finalist), and now, his first novel, A Capital Calamity. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts. Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general. China has only ever done this twice before, both over 40 years ago, back in 1980. Decker and Jeffrey talk about the internally signalling mechanisms, the issues with corruption in the PLARF, China's potential move to US and Russian style ICBM test notifications, strategic stability, and our favorite: absolutely gorgeous high-resolution photos of solid-fuel ICBMs. Audio Originally Recorded September 27th Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be the deployment site of the 9M730 Burevestnik, aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear storage facility. Decker and Jeffrey talk through Decker's methodology for identifying the storage facility, why Russia may deploy such a dangerous system so close to major cities, and the bureaucratic politics that could be driving the development of this bizarre weapon. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Tom Schelling described escalation as a "curved slope" where you won't be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down at the intersection of "legitimate conventional military target" and "direct cause of nuclear escalation" to talk about the risks and justifications for bringing EW systems into a conflict, and discuss James Acton's idea of modern entanglement, and the connection between modern conventional and nuclear operations. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

And you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?" Letting the days go by, politics will hold you down Letting the days go by, heavy water underground Into Fordow again, maybe to Isfahan Once in a lifetime, realignment all around Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was Jeffrey and Aaron go through the current state of play in Iranian politics (just prior to its massive missile strike on Israel), particularly around the nuclear program and what the bomb genuinely means for security and Iranian internal politics, and review how we got here over the past 20 years of Arms Control Wonkery. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!