Art of Boring

In this episode, Peter Lampert, international equity portfolio manager, examines the Middle East conflict and its implications for global markets. He walks through the portfolio's diversification strategy, explains the team's nearly 40-year history with Shell, and explores how a changing market backdrop has challenged traditional definitions of quality and why forward-looking analysis may matter more than historical patterns. How the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are affecting oil and LNG flows, and why equity markets have largely looked through the disruption so far. The portfolio's diversification strategy, balancing energy importers like TSMC with energy producers like Shell to create resilience across different scenarios. Why the team exited Shell in 2015 during the commodity boom, and what changed to make it attractive again when they reinitiated the position in 2022. How the traditional quality factor has underperformed over the last five years as interest rates and commodity prices rose, rotating investor interest away from high-quality growth companies. Why forward-looking analysis is critical—finding wealth-creating companies that don't fit the conventional quality mold, like European defense companies and Korean memory producers benefiting from AI demand. 0:00 Introduction & Episode Overview 0:27 Disclaimer 0:44 Middle East Conflict and Market Implications 1:13 Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Energy Disruption 2:10 Key Risks: Oil, LNG, and Infrastructure Damage 3:30 Portfolio Positioning and Energy Exposure 4:39 Case Study: How TSMC Manages Energy Risk 6:42 Portfolio Diversification Strategy 7:27 Balancing Energy Importers and Producers 8:37 Shell: A 40-Year Investment History 10:35 Quality Factor Underperformance 11:00 Redefining Quality in Changing Markets 14:41 Final Thoughts: Long-Term Perspective 15:19 Closing Remarks and Subscribe Host Info: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Peter Lampert, CFA Portfolio Manager Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ #ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #Podcasts #BeBoringMakeMoney

In this episode, Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas and Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow examine the forces shaping markets in the first quarter of 2026. From the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on oil, inflation, and growth to the broadening AI disruption across software and asset-light business models, they explore how investors can stay thoughtful in an increasingly complex environment. The conversation covers stagflation risks, bond market dynamics, the role of gold as a hedge, and the portfolio adjustments being made as quality businesses face new tests of durability in a changing world order. Key Highlights: • Middle East conflict and stagflation risks: The escalation in Iran has dominated Q1, with the Strait of Hormuz carrying a fifth of daily global oil and gas consumption. Beyond energy, the conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, semiconductor inputs, and global growth—raising the specter of stagflation as slowing growth meets rising inflation, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates. • Equity market performance beneath the surface: While headline quarterly returns appeared calm, significant sector and regional divergence emerged. Energy outperformed (benefiting Canada and developed international markets), while U.S. mega-cap tech and software faced scrutiny over AI CapEx spending and disruption risks. • Bond markets challenged in inflationary environment: Central banks stayed on the sidelines in Q1, balancing inflation concerns against growth risks. Yields rose across the curve, with bonds selling off alongside equities and challenging their traditional safe-haven role. Diversification within fixed income—including global credit with higher yield and lower duration—remains critical for navigating different market regimes. • AI disruption broadening beyond software: The AI "loser" narrative expanded from software providers to consultants, insurance brokers, wealth managers, and other asset-light business models. Markets are pricing in disintermediation risk even where fundamentals haven't deteriorated, with stocks treated as "guilty until proven innocent" based on concerns about future cash flows. • Discipline through uncertainty: Despite multiple potential outcomes from geopolitical and market disruptions, Mawer's investment process remains focused on competitive advantages, durable returns on capital, and disciplined management. The playbook has been updated through broad diversification and careful position sizing—emphasizing that a quality approach carries investors through periods of heightened complexity. Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA Investment Counsellor This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, U.S. equity portfolio manager Grayson Witcher explores what it means to invest exclusively in American businesses at a time when the U.S. is becoming more short‑term, more transactional, and more central to global change. He contrasts a shifting U.S. "extraction" mindset with China's longer-term industrial strategy and considers how that dynamic is reshaping globalization into a more regional, security-conscious world. The conversation then turns to portfolio implications: why the team has been reducing exposure to mature, highly penetrated software names facing intensifying competition and AI disruption, how the market's treatment of AI has evolved from hype to a more "show me the returns" phase, and where they see resilient opportunities. Highlights: How a more short-term, "extraction"-oriented U.S. policy stance—via tariffs, reshoring, and industrial policy—is altering incentives for companies and trading partners. The evolving nature of software moats in an AI world, including higher competitive intensity, mature end markets, and why some long-term winners' valuations may no longer be justified. The market's transition from rewarding any AI narrative to demanding clearer evidence of economic returns on massive cloud and data-center capital spending. A deliberate tilt toward businesses positioned for a more regionalized, security-focused world order, including nuclear, defense, and automation suppliers with multiple ways to win. The importance of remaining bottom-up and valuation-driven while acknowledging regime change—using portfolio construction to manage uncertainty rather than making binary macro bets. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Equity analyst Alex Romaines joins the podcast to unpack "accounting shenanigans" and why getting from reported numbers to the economic truth of a business is so critical for long-term investors. Drawing on forensic accounting frameworks, he explains how a deep grounding in accounting shapes the way he interrogates financial statements—moving beyond compliance with standards to questions of judgment, incentives, and sustainability. The conversation discusses the issue of stock-based compensation: why adding it back to "adjusted" earnings can be misleading, how dilution and buybacks can quietly transfer wealth from outside shareholders to insiders, and practical ways investors can incorporate these real costs into valuation. Alex then highlights other red flags on his radar today—from lengthening depreciation schedules on fast-changing tech hardware, to vendor financing that may inflate revenues, to the quiet return of special purpose vehicles. Highlights: How a forensic accounting mindset helps investors move from reported numbers to the real economics of a business—and why that gap matters. Stock-based compensation as a quiet wealth transfer mechanism, and practical ways long-term investors can account for its true cost. The growing role of judgment in modern financial reporting, from "adjusted" earnings to the incentives shaping management's disclosures. Other accounting signals Alex is watching now, including depreciation assumptions, vendor financing, and the renewed use of special purpose vehicles. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Alex Romaines, CFA Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, we sit down with equity analyst Joshua Samuel to explore how artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) are fundamentally reshaping the nature of competitive advantages tied to data. Josh presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating data moats in the modern era, breaking down four critical categories that can separate lasting advantages from temporary ones. The conversation examines how companies across sectors—from FinTech to defense—are leveraging data to drive better decision making and outcomes. He also addresses the flip side: where traditional data advantages are being eroded by AI's ability to synthesize information, and why trust and execution remain crucial even amongst data advantages. Key Highlights: AI systems now capture and analyze subconscious behavior patterns through clicks and scrolls, potentially knowing users better than they know themselves Traditional data moats in legal, medical, and scientific databases face existential threats as LLMs trained on humanity's collective knowledge can synthesize equivalent insights General-purpose AI can outperform specialized systems by piecing together disparate information, even without access to proprietary datasets In high-stakes B2B environments, established relationships and trust remain powerful defenses against AI disruption, especially where career risk is involved Examines Tencent as a rare example of a company that combines all four dimensions of a strong data moat—proprietary, continuously refreshed, high‑dimensional, and closed‑loop data—spanning social, payments, commerce, and mini‑program ecosystems. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager Guest: Joshua Samuel, CFA Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets. Key Highlights: • In 2025, Canadian equity returns were shaped less by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff shock and more by how markets digested that risk over time alongside a domestic pivot toward pro-growth policy—forces that helped support energy, commodities, and especially the banks. • Within financials, Canadian banks—TD in particular—saw improving fundamentals as credit conditions held up, wealth and capital markets businesses performed well, and a more growth oriented regulatory stance supported competitiveness. • In energy, the team tilted toward integrated producers like Suncor and trimmed more differential sensitive exposure such as Canadian Natural, balancing the long-term risk of higher Venezuelan heavy crude supply against the offsetting support of TMX export capacity. • The team selectively added to gold producers, seeing attractive unit economics and reasonable valuations, and viewing gold as a useful diversifier in a world of geopolitical tension, dedollarization talk, and looser fiscal discipline. • Stepping back, Mark frames Venezuela and trade policy within a broader shift toward transactional spheres of influence and "mercantilist" great power politics—arguing for diversified, incremental positioning changes rather than binary macro bets or anchoring portfolios to any single geopolitical outcome. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

On this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets. Key Highlights Recent private market bankruptcies may signal broader, systemic credit market weakness rather than isolated events, with deteriorating lending standards and rising delinquencies warranting caution. Growing sovereign debt and persistent inflation are challenging the traditional "safe haven" status of U.S. Treasuries, prompting a preference for shorter duration and higher-quality credit exposure. The surge in AI-driven capital expenditures is fueling a wave of debt issuance by large tech companies, likely putting upward pressure on credit spreads and shifting market dynamics in favour of lenders over time. Regulatory rollbacks in the U.S. are reducing transparency and increasing risk-taking, especially in unregulated and private markets, raising concerns about financial stability and corporate behaviour. Credit risk premiums remain compressed, with investors often inadequately compensated for lower-quality credit risk; opportunities are limited, and selectivity is critical. Defensive positioning—focusing on capital preservation, short duration, and high-quality issuers—remains key, with readiness to deploy capital quickly when market dislocations create attractive opportunities. Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Brian Carney, CFA, Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Paul Moroz returns to share an update on our global equity strategy. We dig into what's changed since Paul resumed the lead portfolio manager role, how the team's collaboration has evolved, and why a more diversified and resilient portfolio is the result. Listen for Paul's take on why optionality and humility matter more than ever. Key highlights: Enhanced team collaboration through structural changes leading to better cross-team idea generation Improved portfolio diversification with holdings expanding to over 70 securities: reduction of consumer staples and discretionary overweights, while adding strategic small positions that provide optionality for rapid capital allocation as markets shift Fundamental momentum alignment improved by reducing problem positions and increasing strong earnings momentum names, resulting in better down capture characteristics during market declines Strategic AI complex exposure built through diversified Asian infrastructure plays in memory, power, data centers, and chip fabrication, targeting high market share businesses with better risk-adjusted returns Comprehensive IT sector review underway to identify opportunities in potentially mispriced software companies Portfolio repositioning complete with approximately 19% turnover executed to create a more balanced, diversified portfolio aligned with the platform's investment philosophy: designed for resilience across market regimes Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA – Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead. Key highlights: Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports. Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to resuming rate cuts as growth slows and inflation pressures moderate, though questions about central bank independence and timing of policy moves remain. Canadian bond market performance has been driven by both falling interest rates—especially at the short end of the curve—and tightening credit spreads, with shorter maturities and lower-quality credits outperforming, while longer-dated bonds have lagged due to concerns about persistent inflation. The current strategy emphasizes a steepening yield curve, overweight positions in shorter-dated, higher-quality corporate bonds, and caution on longer maturities, reflecting expectations for continued central bank easing and ongoing risks from inflation and credit fundamentals. Despite recent headlines about rising bond-equity correlations and market risks, fixed income remains a valuable portfolio diversifier, offering higher yields than in recent years and providing a cushion against volatility and modest rate increases. Host: Kevin Minas, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Christa Caughlin, CFA– Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher explores the evolving intersection of government policy, innovation, and capital expenditure (CapEx) in U.S. markets. The discussion unpacks how public spending and strategic government stakes—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense—are reshaping the investment landscape. Grayson reflects on the unique blend of complacency and optimism in today's markets, the uncertain returns on massive AI-driven CapEx, and the importance of management quality and adaptability in navigating this new era. Key highlights: U.S. markets are experiencing a rare surge in capital spending, driven by AI, reshoring, defense, and infrastructure—marking a departure from decades of just-in-time, low-investment environments. The U.S. government's direct stakes in companies like Intel signal a move toward more strategic, state-influenced capitalism, reminiscent of crisis or wartime interventions but now focused on critical industries. Despite significant investment, most companies have yet to realize meaningful returns from generative AI. The market's optimism may be outpacing actual productivity gains, raising questions about long-term ROI. The team seeks diversified exposure to transformative themes (e.g., AI, automation) without betting on single winners, emphasizing companies with adaptable management and clear execution plans. Rising CapEx, persistent inflation drivers, and government intervention create both risks and opportunities. The focus remains on businesses resilient to macro shifts and capable of thriving across scenarios. This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB – Portfolio Manager Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode equity analyst Dominic Drzazga discusses the current state of Canadian small caps, highlighting how geopolitical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities. The conversation covers recent portfolio additions including Sprott's precious metals trust and Kraken's underwater robotics technology, while reflecting on the bittersweet exit of long-time holding Andlauer. Dom also shares insights into how the research team is utilizing AI tools within their process. Key Takeaways: How the Canadian Small Cap team navigates market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, emphasizing capital preservation while remaining opportunistic. The team's disciplined inventory assessment process, highlighting how they maintain a robust pipeline of potential investments and actively monitor over 50 companies. The rationale behind recent portfolio moves, including the addition of Sprott for stable precious metals exposure and Kraken Robotics for its leadership in underwater robotics and defense sector growth. The process-driven approach to exits—e.g., the Andlauer takeout as an example of balancing near-term value realization with long-term potential. An inside look at how AI and internal innovation—such as the "earnings monitor agent"—are streamlining research workflows and enhancing investment decision-making. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode Canadian bond portfolio manager, Crista Caughlin, and balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher discuss Q2's market and economic activity. Topics covered include "Liberation Day's" tariff shocks, central bank policies, inflation, and other themes. Key Takeaways: The announcement and subsequent deferral of sweeping U.S. tariffs caused significant market volatility, with a sharp initial selloff followed by a rapid recovery. The uncertainty around trade policy had a pronounced impact on economic growth expectations and market sentiment. The quarter featured slowing growth in both the U.S. and Canada, with notable weakness in consumer spending and business investment. Despite expectations, inflation remained contained, and employment data presented a mixed picture—stronger in the U.S., weaker in Canada. Central banks responded differently to domestic economic conditions. The ECB cut rates twice due to weaker growth and contained inflation, while the Fed and Bank of Canada adopted a wait-and-see approach, maintaining a dovish bias but holding rates steady. There was a notable reversal in equity performance trends, with international and emerging market equities outperforming U.S. equities. This—among other factors—raised questions about the potential end of U.S. exceptionalism, though we remain cautious against drawing premature conclusions. Credit spreads tightened to multi-decade lows, reflecting either investor confidence or complacency. Interest rates remained range-bound despite volatility, and the structural shift to higher neutral rates appears to have already occurred in recent years. Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA – Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Crista Caughlin, CFA – Portfolio Manager Steven Visscher, CFA – Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer's Canadian large cap strategy, discusses the ongoing volatility in oil, the unique role of gold, the outlook for Canadian banks, and the potential impact of recent political changes. Mark also shares how the Mawer team is leveraging AI to enhance their investment process and decision-making. Key Takeaways: • Oil Market: Global demand is rising, driven by economic growth and higher incomes, while supply is shaped by geopolitics, OPEC, and technology. • Canadian Banks: Loan growth is slow and provisions are higher amid uncertainty, but banks remain well-capitalized and stable. • Political Change: New pro-growth policies in Canada could boost productivity and create investment opportunities, especially in infrastructure and financials. • Gold's role: Gold remains a store of value; Mawer prefers low-cost producers and streaming/royalty models. • AI Integration: AI is streamlining research, improving efficiency, and generating new investment ideas using proprietary data and tools. This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/