Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 2026-08-28 Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel open with a discussion of the latest Federal Reserve signals, with Siegel praising the renewed emphasis on money supply, bank credit, commodity prices, market-based inflation expectations, and interest rates. Siegel views the Fed’s tone as more hawkish than expected, but argues that markets responded positively because policymakers provided clearer criteria and demonstrated a more disciplined framework. He also discusses the possibility of additional rate hikes, the resilience of economic activity, and the market implications of strong earnings from NVIDIA and Salesforce. (12:40) After Professor Siegel leaves, Schwartz is joined by Michael Fridman, Sam Rines, and Chris Gannatti for a broader market and technology discussion. The group examines NVIDIA’s continued data-center growth, the widening base of AI demand, improving sentiment toward software, Salesforce’s rebound, and the distinction between broad software recovery and selective opportunities. They also debate potential risks to the AI trade, custom chips versus NVIDIA’s full-stack ecosystem, Marvell’s positioning, Meta’s legal settlement, and developments in quantum computing. The conversation closes with signs of resilience in consumer spending, the transition from AI infrastructure buildout toward commercialization, improving profit margins, and renewed interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier. Michael on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelfridman23/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 2026-08-14 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss weaker retail sales, inflation trends, strong corporate earnings and the market continuing to reach new highs. The Prof notes that some recent economic data has softened, but higher-frequency indicators are not yet pointing to a major slowdown, while lower oil prices and encouraging inflation details remain supportive for markets. He also focuses on Fed policy, arguing that while avoiding forward guidance is defensible, the Fed still needs to be clearer about its reaction function, the inflation measures it is watching and the conditions that would lead to a rate change, with Jackson Hole potentially providing that clarity. Jim Bianco joins the discussion with the Prof to break the issue into forward guidance, the Fed’s reaction function and the increasingly independent voting behavior of committee members. (21:12) Jeremy continues with Jim Bianco, Sam Rines and Chris Gannatti to discuss their takeaways from Camp Kotok, including the massive scale of AI capital spending, the federal deficit, geopolitical risk and the changing nature of warfare as drones and lower-cost technologies challenge traditional military spending. Sam expands on defense procurement and tariffs, while Chris discusses developments in quantum computing and the roadmaps public companies are laying out toward fault-tolerant systems. Jim then walks through his current bond-market positioning, including a more neutral stance on duration, corporate bonds and mortgages, along with exposure to convertible bonds tied to the AI theme. He also explains why moderately higher rates may be consistent with a strong economy, where rates could begin to pressure equities, and why lower mortgage rates alone may not solve housing affordability. The conversation closes with global markets, Japan, rising rates overseas, currency intervention, the yen and the effect of tariffs on corporate capital flows. About the guest: Jim Bianco is President and Index Manager at Bianco Research Advisors. He is also the President of Bianco Research LLC. Since 1990, Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. Jim appears regularly on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business, and is often featured in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Grants Interest Rate Observer, and MarketWatch. Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989). Learn More about the Bianco Total Return Index: https://www.biancoadvisors.com/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 2026-07-31 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady and what the Prof viewed as a poorly handled press conference that failed to clearly explain a defensible policy decision. The Prof also covers the sharp rotation from growth to value, strong consumer spending beneath the GDP report, rapid money supply growth and the importance of oil prices to inflation, sentiment and the market outlook. (13:50) Jeremy continues with Sam Rines, Blake Hyman and Michael Fridman to break down the month’s volatility in AI-related stocks, including hedge fund de-risking, leverage unwinds and the impact of risk management on semiconductor and memory names. The group reviews earnings and AI spending from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Apple, debating whether hyperscaler capital expenditures are generating sustainable returns and whether enterprise demand confirms that AI is moving from experimentation into commercialization. They also discuss the outlook for memory companies, long-term supply agreements and why the broader AI infrastructure buildout may still be in its third or fourth inning. The conversation closes with Apple’s uncertain AI strategy, potential opportunities for private local models, movements in the Japanese yen, the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, tariff refunds for U.S. companies and the possibility that volatility and further leverage-related selling could continue into August. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments