Canso Radio

Send us Fan Mail The financial and energy markets have run aground in the Strait of Hormuz. We and most knowledgeable experts had no idea that the perceived acclaim, ease and success of Trump’s Venezuelan adventure would lure him into trying his hand at Iran again. Our worries about eventual tariff driven inflation now seem quaint compared to what is going on with Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to the oil industry in the Middle East, neither of which seemed considered ...

Send us Fan Mail Last year was a volatile one for the financial markets as unpredictable Donald Trump entered the White House in January. Expecting the returning President Trump to bring hot markets with his election, as in his first term, investors soon learned to their chagrin that he was serious about his “Beautiful Tariffs”. Markets then tanked, recovered and then soared when he dropped the worst of his tariffs. That, and a renewed Artificial Intelligence (AI) mania, ignited a buying fren...

Send us Fan Mail Fear and uncertainty moved aside this summer, and optimism is now abound. Central Bankers are cutting rates, equity markets are touching new highs, and the Toronto Blue Jays are headed to the World Series! In credit markets, we also continue to experience historically strong market conditions. Sources: Ronalds-Hannon, Eliza and Weinman, Aaron. (2025, October 12). From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds are Now Crashing at Breakneck Speed. Nakamoto, Michiyo and Wighton, David....

Send us Fan Mail The theme of our previous April 2025 Market Observer was that only a fool would try to predict what would happen to the financial markets and the global economies after Donald Trump declared his Tariff War on the World. The more expertise you possessed, the less you were probably able to forecast the actual outcome. As they say, it’s not over until it’s over but rising equity markets and tightening credit spreads weren’t most experts’ first choice, but that’s what has happene...

Send us Fan Mail

Send us Fan Mail

Send us Fan Mail We were writing about the confused state of political and economic affairs in June and wondered, like the Marvin Gaye song title, “What’s Going On?”. We marvelled at how the financial markets were ignoring any bad news in their haste to move ever upwards in price.

Send us Fan Mail "What’s Going On” was the plaintive refrain and title of Marvin Gaye’s 1971 hit song about the controversial Vietnam War and the resulting societal and political upset in the United States. His song of confusion and disappointment seems as relevant to us today. We look with trepidation on the political and social tumult around the world and wonder ourselves what is going on.

Send us Fan Mail The so-called experts who called for dismal markets in 2023 were nowhere to be found in the 2024 New Year prognostications. Happy days were here again, and nobody wanted to spoil the fortunes from soaring markets that had been handed to investors by saying anything remotely negative this time around.

Send us Fan Mail Generations of finance students have been taught Efficient Markets theory, but we have always begged to differ. What happened in 2023 to the financial markets and the economy should give anyone pause about how efficient the financial markets really are.

Send us Fan Mail The early 2023 “Will They, Won’t They” and “They Should” bond market consensus of lower interest rate prognostication morphed into a mid-year and more pleading “Why Won’t They??” lower interest rates. It has now grudgingly grown into a more accepting but fatalistic “They Probably Won’t” consensus.

Send us Fan Mail Is 4% a better target than 2%? This debate should prove interesting. We have always said that more money is much more popular than less money.