Changing Climate, Changing Migration

Refugees are often some of the people most vulnerable to climate change. After fleeing armed conflict or persecution, many refugees end up in camps located in rural areas, with few resources and little support. That can leave them vulnerable to floods, storms, extreme heat, or other impacts of climate change. This episode focuses on these impacts, with insights from Ayoo Irene Hellen, a South Sudanese refugee in Uganda and climate advocate. She discusses her own experiences, those of her community, and the value of including refugee voices in planning. Want to dive deeper? Listen to an earlier episode speaking with the UN refugee agency’s special advisor on climate action: https://mpichangingclimatechangingmigration.podbean.com/e/no-climate-refugees-but-still-a-role-for-the-un-refugee-agency/ All of MPI’s work on climate migration is here: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/topics/climate-change 00:00 Intro 02:45 Climate impacts on refugee settlements in Uganda 09:32 Legal and socioeconomic barriers to climate adaptation 16:52 Exclusion of refugees from climate policy processes 19:21 Refugee-led community resilience strategies 23:11 Climate challenges upon return: The case of South Sudan 27:24 Closing thoughts: co-creation and refugee inclusion

Africa may be the most climate-vulnerable region of the world, with drought, extreme heat and storms, and other impacts affecting millions across the continent. These environmental events have forced people from their homes and in some cases even contributed to conflict between different groups. By far, most climate-affected individuals who migrate stay either within their own country or go elsewhere on the continent, rather than migrating beyond Africa. How prepared is the continent for a future of increased displacement? Governments are making some strides to accommodate displaced people—although there is often a gap between official rhetoric and the realities on the ground. This episode discusses climate-linked migration issues across Africa with Aimée-Noël Mbiyozo, a senior research consultant at the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies.

Children are especially vulnerable to displacement linked to climate change. Each year, millions of young people are displaced by weather-related disasters, as schools and other services break down and adults send children away to find safety. Forced from their homes, children often face new challenges, including being unable to access education or medical care, and even heightened risk of violence and other dangers. Despite the unique challenges that children face in displacement, there are relatively few international laws or systems particularly designed to assist those forced to move because of environmental factors. We speak with UNICEF’s Laura Healy about this reality and the opportunities to better protect children in a warming world.

It is no easy task to say with certainty that a particular storm, drought, or other extreme weather event causes human displacement, or that those individual events are due to human-caused climate change. Hurricanes, wildfires, mudslides, monsoons, and other sudden-onset events, as well as slow-onset ones such as drought, extreme heat, and sea-level rise, have happened for millennia. To attribute specific impacts to human-made environmental change requires scientists to parse through years of data and pattern detection. In this episode, we speak with climate scientist Lisa Thalheimer, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, to explain how experts untangle the connections between climate change and migration.

Does AI have a role to play in mapping and predicting climate migration trends? In this episode of the podcast, we explore the issue with John Aoga, a postdoctoral researcher at UCLouvain in Belgium. He led a study using machine learning algorithms to trace how climate shocks affected migration intentions in several countries in West Africa. We discuss his findings and the broader promise and peril of using these types of technologies to map and predict migration flows.

Floods, drought, extreme temperatures, and other climate events have devastated parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Repercussions of climate change come on top of years of conflict, which have left countless numbers of people unable to adapt to changing conditions. In response, many have fled, either in short-term displacement or permanent migration. Our podcast speaks with researchers Maryam Abbasi and Nasrat Sayed about how climate change is compelling migration in Afghanistan and Pakistan, layering on top of conflict as a driver for displacement.

Many countries need more workers to fill jobs in clean energy and other sectors that are critical in the fight against a warming planet. Immigrants may be one part of the solution to the challenges posed by climate change. But governments have been slow to ramp up responses to recruit, train, or accredit foreign-born workers necessary for the green transition, with one model estimating a shortage of 7 million green workers globally by 2030. This episode discusses the labor picture and global trends in green sectors with Kate Hooper, a Migration Policy Institute senior policy analyst who focuses on global labor migration.

The ways in which people talk about climate migration can affect how individuals are treated. While many activists frame climate migrants as blameless victims of circumstance and even refer to them as “climate refugees,” this approach does not always lead to public sympathy. Moreover, highlighting the role of climate in displacement can unintentionally cause a backlash among host communities, who themselves likely are experiencing or expecting to face similar environmental challenges. In this episode, we speak with Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, who is deputy director of MPI's International Program and our in-house expert on public opinion and migration messaging, about the narratives and public attitudes towards climate migrants.

Climate change is remaking vacations, particularly in hot months. Extreme heat can be deadly for tourists and events such as wildfires, hurricanes, and sea-level rise can devastate tourism-dependent communities. Tourism is also a major contributor to climate change, and some travelers have begun rethinking their plans, taking emissions into account as they consider transportation and destinations. This episode explores how climate change is affecting global tourism. Our guest is Daniel Scott, research chair at the University of Waterloo’s Department of Geography and Environmental Management and an international research fellow at the School of Hospitality and Tourism at the University of Surrey.

The U.S. military has long warned that climate change poses a challenge to global security. Instability and insecurity can be a result of unmanaged migration, with the potential for widespread climate displacement creating tensions in host communities. And they could also spark additional migration, if people flee precarious political dynamics. This episode, with Climate Migration Council member and retired U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott H. Swift, evaluates the security dynamics of climate change and migration, focusing on the Pacific.

The world is grappling with the idea of restitution for people who have been negatively affected by the impacts of climate change—potentially including displacement within a country or across international borders. World leaders are at the early stages of creating a global loss and damage fund to financially compensate these climate victims. Much remains unresolved, including complicated and controversial questions about which countries owe money to whom, and how to attach a dollar figure to intangible losses such as destruction of natural land. In this episode, we speak with Adelle Thomas from Climate Analytics to wade through the thicket of challenges ahead, in particular as relates to climate migrants—those displaced by hostile environmental conditions linked to a rapidly changing climate.

A landmark climate migration deal inked in late 2023 would allow hundreds of climate-vulnerable residents of the small island nation of Tuvalu to move to Australia. The pact is the latest step for a region that is at the leading edge globally in policy experimentation to address climate displacement. This Australia-Tuvalu deal, which is not uncontroversial, follows a brief and ultimately shelved attempt by New Zealand to create a “climate refugee” visa. How are these policies playing out, and what can the rest of the world learn from the Pacific experiences? This episode features renowned legal scholar Jane McAdam, who directs the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW.