If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Taiwan Conflict

About this episode

This episode discusses the potential social stability costs for China in the event of a military conflict with Taiwan.

Today’s episode is the second in a three-part series that examines the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for domestic social stability. To recap, the study considered two scenarios occurring in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, U.S. intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties. Joining us today are Sheena Chestnut Greitens and…

People in this episode

Guests: Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Jake Rinaldi

Topics covered

• China-Taiwan relations
• military conflict
• social stability
• international relations
• economic consequences

Keywords

• China
• Taiwan
• military conflict
• social stability
• international costs
• economic impact
• U.S. intervention

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: University of Texas at Austin, U.S. Army War College, RAND Corporation

Places: Taiwan, China, Japan, Guam

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