ChinaTalk

Earlier this year, we ran an essay contest on economic security. We gave entrants two prompts: What are the most important high level KPIs that policy should aim for? What is the analogy of the Fed’s ’2% inflation and full employment’ target for economic security? Where today would you put $10-50bn to get the most for your investment in economic security? Feel free to propose both defensive and offensive ideas, and either a portfolio of ideas or the one large idea you think will deliver the most value. We ended up with a literal four-way tie for first place, with each judge giving a different essay top marks. We heard from Farrell Gregory earlier about how to spend rare earths money, and here, we’ll be spotlighting the three others who went into the framework question. Joining us today — ⁠Jahara Matisek⁠, a lieutenant colonel in the Air Force and fellow at the U.S. Naval War College; ⁠Naveen Krishnan⁠ at the Belfer Center and an intel officer in the Navy Reserve; and ⁠Guy Ward Jackson⁠, senior policy analyst at the Tony Blair Institute in London. No one is speaking for the Air Force, the Navy, Harvard, the Naval War College, the Tony Blair Institute, or the Department of War. I’m speaking for ChinaTalk. Our conversation covers: Why economic security is really an insurance problem — you’re paying people to keep factories warm, workers trained, and capacity idle for a war that may never come — and why no democracy likes paying that bill. Why the U.S. can’t China-proof its economy alone — the case for a distributed allied industrial base and using allied leverage and counter-coercion as an offensive tool. What $6 billion and four years bought in artillery production, why it still wasn’t enough, and how Patriot missile economics expose the danger of having exquisite weapons without industrial depth. Why you can’t science your way out of a volume problem — AI, robotics, and frontier R&D are caffeine, but the U.S. is still short on food and water. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ely Ratner, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs and now a principal at the Marathon Initiative, joins Jordan, Bryan Clark, and Justin to make sense of the Iran ceasefire and where US-China competition goes next. We discuss: Why the MOU reads as a loss: the blockade comes down first, Iran keeps its missiles and its "nuclear dust," and a younger, harder regime learns it can take American firepower and wield an oil weapon The "bullshit détente" with Beijing and whether reindustrialization can carry a China-competition message without sounding hawkish Output metrics over input metrics, the seven-year force-posture problem, and what Ratner wishes he'd moved into the "break glass" category at the Pentagon RoboCom: the pros and cons of standing up a new combatant command Plus Crassus at Parthia, and why chasing parades is a bad idea unless you're the ny knicks suno song: https://suno.com/s/scu8twGj01AIOYSL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris McGuire, former civil servant in State and the Biden White House now at CFR, talk about the export control craziness of these past two weeks. We discuss: The 5:21 PM letter that took the world's most powerful model offline Why the "let it rip" administration pivoted to mandatory AI regulation overnight The incoherent export-control regime: regs that still say one thing while policy says another The overseas-subsidiary loophole, the Sunday emergency fix, and the foundry gap still left open outtro music: https://suno.com/s/UVeDiboPyj0jvIgO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices