ASML's Guidance Is Up. So Is the Risk.

About this episode

The episode discusses ASML's raised guidance and the complexities behind its Q1 2026 earnings, including market risks and growth expectations.

ASML just raised guidance at both ends — new range is €36 to €40 billion for 2026, implying around 17% growth year over year. That's a strong result. But the data underneath it tells a more complicated story.In this episode, we break down what ASML's Q1 2026 earnings mean for the broader wafer fab equipment cycle, why ASML is expected to slightly underperform the 300mm equipment market this year, and what the semi.org outlook through 2028 is quietly flagging about the next mid-cycle slowdown. We also run a reverse DCF on ASML at current prices — and walk through why the implied earnings growth rate needed to justify today's stock price should give investors pause. This is not a sell call. It's a reality check on expectations in a market that has gone hardware-crazy and forgotten that cycles — including this one — don't last forever. Topics covered:- ASML Q1 2026 earnings and raised guidance- Semi.org wafer fab equipment outlook through 2028- 300mm fab market: $133B, 18% growth- Advanced packaging and where ASML fits in- Reverse DCF walkthrough: the 43% EPS growth problem- Mid-cycle slowdown probability and what to watch Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold ASML. Content is for general…

People in this episode

Hosts: Nicholas Rossolillo, Kasey Rossolillo

Topics covered

• ASML earnings
• wafer fab equipment
• 300mm market
• reverse DCF
• mid-cycle slowdown
• investment risks

Keywords

• ASML
• guidance
• wafer fab equipment
• 300mm market
• reverse DCF
• investment advice
• mid-cycle slowdown

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: ASML, semi.org

Products: 300mm equipment

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