Episode 73: Bonds, Bots, and Base Rates: Where Yields Go Next

About this episode

The episode discusses the outlook for yields, the impact of AI on bond supply, and the implications for various asset classes.

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, a hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Senior Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this episode, Chris and Ying Yi run a top-down markets scan: recent performance and the outlook for yields, how hyperscaler AI capex is feeding into bond supply, inflation expectations and term premia, and where value is emerging across major asset classes. They cover the next moves from the RBA and the Fed, implications for housing and growth, and whether AI ultimately proves disinflationary. The conversation closes with the cross-asset tells—USD, gold and bitcoin—and what they’re signalling for the year ahead. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence…

People in this episode

Hosts: Christopher Joye, Ying Yi

Topics covered

• bonds
• AI
• inflation
• yields
• asset classes
• monetary policy

Keywords

• bonds
• AI capex
• inflation expectations
• term premia
• RBA
• Fed
• housing
• growth
• USD
• bitcoin

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Coolabah Capital, RBA, Fed

Places: Australia, USD, gold, bitcoin

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• Episode 76: The Budget Shock: Rates, Housing, and Australia’s Capital Flight Risk · May 15, 2026 · 28 min
• Episode 75: War, Rates, and Risk: Where to Hide in a Fragile Macro Regime · April 10, 2026 · 30 min
• Episode 74: War in Middle East; Oil Price Shock; Inflation and Interest Rates · March 9, 2026 · 20 min
• Episode 72: America First, Inflation Second: Trump, Power Politics, and the End of Easy Money · January 21, 2026 · 21 min
• Episode 71: From Lucky Country to Lazy Land: When the State Smothers Markets · December 21, 2025 · 10 min
• Episode 70: AI Capex: The Trillion-Dollar Inflation Time-Bomb · November 30, 2025 · 11 min