Current Account with Clay Lowery

Latin America is entering a pivotal election cycle with major implications for policy, markets, and geopolitics. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Martín Castellano, Head of Latin America Research, and Paola Figueroa, Head of Frontier Latin America Research, to break down key races in Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. They explore what recent results reveal about political fragmentation, governability, and investor confidence, and assess how domestic pressures are shaping outcomes. The conversation also looks beyond individual elections to examine how the region’s shifting political landscape could influence relationships with the United States and broader global markets in the months ahead. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Stephen Myrow, Managing Partner of Beacon Policy Advisors, to take stock of where the U.S. midterm elections stand six months out - and why they matter far beyond Washington. They discuss why the House has emerged as the central battleground, how the Senate map has quietly become more competitive, and what a potential shift in control could mean for policy, regulation, and executive authority. The political landscape looks very different than it did just six months ago. Clay and Stephen discuss how slipping presidential approval ratings, aggressive redistricting battles, and the fallout from an unpopular war are reshaping the midterm map in real time. They explore why outcomes once considered unlikely are now firmly in play, and what the evolving election dynamics could mean for investors, financial institutions, and international partners. The question is no longer just who wins in November, but how Washington governs the day after. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, who shares her perspective from conversations across Spring Meetings and brings years of experience at the intersection of economics, geopolitics, and markets. Together, they assess if discussions around growth, inflation, and monetary policy are being overshadowed by events in the Middle East, and whether the apparent calm in financial markets masks deeper risks tied to energy prices and supply disruptions. The conversation then turns squarely to Europe’s economic trajectory - Clay and Isabelle discuss whether recent momentum on competitiveness and growth has been interrupted by higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty, and how Europe is balancing mounting funding needs, from defense spending and energy security to sustainability and technological investment, against already tight fiscal conditions. They also explore whether artificial intelligence can play a meaningful role in supporting productivity and growth, or whether political and labor‑market constraints may limit its macro impact. The episode concludes with a discussion of monetary policy, focusing on how central banks, especially the European Central Bank, are navigating a “wait‑and‑see” environment shaped by geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, and market expectations. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss the conflict in Iran and the resulting market implications as the conflict enters its fourth week. With continued attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz still nearly shut, global markets are confronting the consequences of an energy shock unlike anything seen in decades. Oil remains above $100 a barrel, supply routes are strained, and consumers around the world are feeling the pressure at the pump. To help make sense of the rapidly changing energy picture, they explore why this shock is proving so disruptive, how markets have responded so far, and which regions are most exposed if elevated prices persist. The conversation examines the broader macroeconomic risks: when a tight oil market stops being a short‑term nuisance and begins to bleed into inflation expectations, how long supply disruptions can be sustained before strategic reserves or alternative routes come into play, and what a delayed reopening of the Strait might mean for energy‑importing economies. Clay and Helima also discuss the political dimension, including President Trump’s self‑imposed deadline for a negotiated end to the conflict, and the uncertainty surrounding whether flows through the Strait can ever return to pre‑war levels. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Negar Mortazavi, a Journalist, Political Analyst and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP), for a clear, timely breakdown of the rapidly unfolding conflict in Iran. Less than two weeks after U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted key Iranian government and military sites, retaliatory actions have rippled across the region, impacting energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and global markets. Negar explains what has transpired since the initial strikes, including the dramatic succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new leader. She discusses the internal political dynamics in Tehran, the likelihood of domestic unrest, and how the Iranian government is framing this moment both internally and regionally. Clay and Negar also examine Iran’s attempts to broaden the conflict geographically and the strategic calculations behind attacks on neighboring countries. The conversation closes with a look ahead: what escalation or de‑escalation could realistically look like, what all of this means for energy markets and geopolitical stability, and what next steps may be in store. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Doug Elliott, Partner at Oliver Wyman, and Andrés Portilla, Managing Director of Regulatory Affairs at the IIF, to take a closer look at the growing global debate over regulatory modernization. Fifteen years after the Global Financial Crisis led policymakers to introduce an expansive set of rules designed to reinforce financial stability, many jurisdictions are now questioning whether the existing framework has become overly complex, duplicative, or limiting to growth. Together, Clay, Doug, and Andrés unpack what modernization really means today, whether it is simplification, de‑layering, right‑sizing, or true deregulation, and why the conversation is gaining urgency across markets. Doug lays out the philosophical and practical forces behind modernization efforts globally, while Andrés discusses the findings of the recent IIF Report, "Modernization and Simplification — Revamping the Global Banking Regulatory Framework" - underscoring how overlapping constraints and diverging national interpretations create unnecessary friction for banks operating across borders. The discussion also turns to the ongoing debate over central bank independence, an issue increasingly intertwined with the regulatory modernization agenda. They examine how these debates differ across jurisdictions, how they may influence regulatory decision‑making, and why a credible, independent regulatory framework remains essential for market confidence. In addition, the conversation assesses the role of global standard setters, including the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee, in helping ensure consistency as countries revise their approaches at different paces. Clay and his guests discuss why maintaining coherence across borders is critical, even as national politics, growth priorities, and competitive pressures pull policymakers in different directions. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi and former U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, to explore Japan’s shifting economic landscape following a historic political moment.* Just over 100 days into her term, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election that delivered a rare supermajority for the Liberal Democratic Party. With such a decisive mandate, Japan enters 2026 with renewed political strength and major policy opportunities. Together, they discuss what Prime Minister Takaichi’s victory means for economic policymaking, how the U.S.-Japan alliance is shaping the outlook, and the growing debate around possible U.S. intervention in the yen. Nathan offers insight into why intervention is being discussed now, what it would aim to accomplish, and whether it is truly likely given recent messaging from Washington. The conversation also examines the broader dollar debate, Japan’s uniquely high debt levels, and the pressures facing both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Clay and Nathan conclude with a look at geopolitics, specifically the delicate triumvirate relationship between the U.S., Japan and China, and how this balance could impact the global economy in the year ahead. *Before jumping into Japan, Clay acknowledges the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision striking down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs. For more on IEEPA and its implications, check out Current Account episodes [134](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs"), [126](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA"), [109](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now- "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now-"), and [96](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications"). This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by two IIF colleagues, Marcello Estevão, Managing Director and Chief Economist, and Gene Ma, Head of China Research and Chief Representative for the Asia-Pacific region, to take a closer look at China’s evolving role in the global economy at a time when growth is no longer the country’s top priority. Long viewed as the engine of global expansion, China is now emphasizing domestic stability, reshaping trade patterns and global economic dynamics in the process. Drawing on recent travel across the region and insights from the IIF China Economic Forum, they discuss how policymakers and market participants are interpreting China’s shift away from growth-driven stimulus toward a more measured approach. The conversation explores the drivers behind China’s record trade surplus, including the role of weak imports alongside steady exports, ongoing challenges in the housing sector, rising household savings, and persistent deflationary pressures. Clay, Marcello, and Gene also examine how China’s increasing focus on trade with emerging markets—and reduced engagement with advanced economies—is reshaping global trade flows. The episode concludes with a forward-looking discussion on what really matters for understanding China in 2026, and why the key question may no longer be how fast China grows, but how its new economic posture affects the rest of the world. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Christian Mumenthaler, former CEO of Swiss Re and current chair of the UBS Center for Economics in Society, to examine Europe’s economic competitiveness at a pivotal moment for the global economy. Recorded live from Zurich, Switzerland, the episode situates Europe’s outlook amid intensifying geopolitical pressures, regulatory debates, and shifting transatlantic dynamics. Drawing on his experience leading a global financial institution, Christian offers his assessment of Europe’s competitive position following the release of the Draghi report and weighs in on whether concerns about stalled innovation and productivity are overstated. The conversation explores how Europe’s financial regulatory and supervisory framework affects growth, whether the continent can balance increased defense spending with ambitions in digital innovation and the green transition, covers some common themes or myths around Europe and its progress, and how Europe should approach its economic relationships with the United States and China as fragmentation deepens. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Eric Farnsworth, Partner at Continental Strategy and a veteran of U.S. government and international policy circles, to examine one of the most dramatic geopolitical developments in recent years: the U.S. military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on January 3. This unprecedented move has thrown Venezuela into political uncertainty and raised critical questions about the country’s future. Together, Clay and Eric discuss the objectives behind the U.S. action, who is now in charge in Venezuela, and what this means for governance and stability. The conversation also explores Venezuela’s economic collapse, the state of its oil sector, and whether lifting sanctions could reopen the door for investors and financial services firms. Finally, the episode looks ahead to what might come next for Venezuela, from potential regime change to the challenges of rebuilding infrastructure and restoring economic capacity. For more from the IIF on Venezuela, read our recent publication here: LatAm Views: Venezuela’s Transition — Early Signals and Market Implications. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Sonja Gibbs, IIF’s Managing Director of Global Policy Initiatives and Head of Sustainable Finance, to discuss the latest developments in global debt as the year comes to a close. Clay and Sonja examine what the rise of global debt, now standing at a total of nearly $346 trillion, means for financial markets and private sector firms and explore the factors driving this increase - particularly the concentration of debt in the government sector, with China and the United States leading the way. The conversation also looks at corporate debt, which is approaching $100 trillion, and considers the implications of record-high issuance by high-yield borrowers. Finally, the episode looks ahead to 2026, discussing which trends are likely to continue and what new dynamics could shape debt markets in the coming year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.