David Reavill

It's an almost irresistible temptation, especially for Americans who are suffering financially: President Donald Trump has offered to send out a "Dividend" Check to millions, promising it is part of the very successful Tariff Program. Today, we'll take a look at this offer and whether it is a "good deal" or not.

It was late in 2024 that most soy farmers settled on their plans for this year. And what a year 2024 had been. It was one of the most highly profitable years for soybeans ever. And for the many farmers who had switched to the "beans" a decade before, they must have felt prescient. The demand for Soy in the States had continued to gradually strengthen, as many Americans sought out the healthy, vegetarian alternative to red meat.

However, it's only now that we're beginning to feel the added pinch of this new import tax. Because it takes time for imports to reach American ports, be transported to local stores and shops, it has taken this long for us to see those new, tariff-laden goods. Labor Day Weekend was the beginning of what we anticipate will be a sustained elevation in prices due to tariffs. Regrettably, we're only at the first chapter of what will likely be a very long story, one that may have a profound financial influence on us all.

At the core of President Trump's Tariff Policy are the multiple goals of reducing the nation's trade imbalance, re-industrializing the country, and raising funds for the government budget. Almost no one would argue with these objectives.

The answer to that question will be readily apparent to those of a certain age, but a total enigma to our younger fellows. During the entire period of the Cold War, which lasted for more than 40 years from the post-war years until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1992, the overwhelming threat was from a Soviet Nuclear Bomb.

One such market does exist. It's the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX). On this market, the US Dollar trades against all the other currencies in the world. The St. Louis Federal Reserve tracks the Weekly movements of the US Dollar Index (Nominal), which is available to everyone.

However, for many, life comes with a different perspective, a unique way of seeing things. For the 1.4 billion Catholics around the world, all that came into focus yesterday, May 8. The College of Cardinals elected a new Pope, Pope Leo XIV.

Relatively few investors are day traders, yet most of the technical market indicators are computed daily. This leads to a very myopic perspective — it’s like driving a car with a microscope. You’ll eventually see the oncoming traffic, but it may be after you crash.

It’s easy for Investment outsiders to underestimate the pressure to perform on Wall Street. From the largest Mutual or Hedge Fund Manager (with the greatest AUM) to the lowest regional Stock Broker, the demand to produce solid returns year after year is intense. It’s the reason many financial professionals hang up their careers prematurely.

We started following Warren Buffett's cash position a year ago. At the time (the end of 2023), he had accumulated $163 Billion, an unheard-of sum. Many felt that the “Oracle from Omaha” had reached his limit, that he'd gone as far as he would. However, it turned out that Buffett had only just begun raising cash. By the end of 2024, Berkshire Hathaway's cash position had risen to $334 Billion—incredible!

The United States was founded upon the principle of limited Government, the concept that no power or authority should have absolute control over its citizens. This is most often seen in our tripartite division of the President, Congress, and the Courts. However, the division of power between the Federal Government in Washington and the various state governments is equally essential.

Sunday's overnight Stock Futures were in turmoil. Everything was being sold—across the board, nothing but red. I furiously began to search for the reason behind this knee-jerk reaction.