Daybreak with Anton

The predictability of investor behavior can feel almost tedious to anyone who closely follows market activity. Major U.S. indices are wrapping up a third consecutive calendar year of double-digit annual gains, with the S&P 500 up 76.52% and the NASDAQ soaring 119.4% since January 1, 2022. Hopefully, relentless negative messaging from the major media outlets did not keep you on the sidelines and prevent you from participating in these solid gains over the past three years. Listen to this UPdate our view of the AI boom, the recent market pause, and investor temperament.

Last weekend, our friends and clients, Justin and Kelli Blackburn, invited us to attend the formal annual dinner benefiting St Jude Children's Research Hospital. Justin and Kelli are the founders of Trinity Constructors, a leading commercial construction company with offices in Texas, Tennessee, and Colorado. Listen to this UPdate our experience attending this dinner event and the impact this organization has had on Justin and Kelli.

Engineers have a remarkable talent for inventing solutions to problems most people didn't even know existed. Consider the humble public restroom. For decades, we managed perfectly well with the trusty twisty-knob faucet—left for hot, right for cold. Simple. Functional. Civilized. Now, in this UPdate, we take a look at businesses pouring millions—and in some cases, billions—into AI, often with no clear plan for how that investment will actually deliver returns.

Investors are enjoying a robust stock market rally with NASDAQ and possibly the S&P 500 completing three consecutive years of 20%+ annual gains. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a record-breaking cash reserve, reaching an all-time high of $347.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025. This represents more than a threefold increase in just three years, driven largely by aggressive stock sales and what their investment committee led by Warren Buffet perceives as a lack of attractive investment opportunities. Listen to this UPdate our analysis of multiple stock market warnings and our views of the stock for the balance of 2025 and into 2026.

My selection of reports to write about is getting narrowed as multiple reporting US Federal agencies have stopped releasing economic data due to the Federal government shutdown. However, just before the government shutdown, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, (FHFA) released their housing price index for July based on home purchases with mortgages financed or bundled by federal housing agencies. Listen to 4this UPdate our analysis of the housing market and potential impact on the stock market.

To determine the future costs of consumer goods one needs to monitor the costs to producers. If producer costs go up then it is only a matter of time until your costs increase at the retail level. Read in this UPdate our reporting on the changes of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) and what impact tariffs may be playing in future price increases.

After the Federal Reserve raised their discount rate 500% in 2022 and 2023 taking mortgage rates up with them, housing activity has hit a brick wall. Since mid-2023, prospective home buyers have remained on the sidelines happy to remain with their current home or as renters. Listen in this UPdate our analysis of the housing market, its impact on the stock market, and our projections for the balance of this year.

My grandson, Anton the 5th, and I flew our Piper Cherokee laterally across the country from southern Texas to the Annual AirVenture event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin earlier this month. Flying through the mid-west during the summer is always a challenge with pop-up thunderstorms, tornadoes, rain, and low cloud ceilings. The economy is starting to also show new signs of potential turbulence. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of the economy and stock market and how you might consider navigation through possible turbulent market conditions.