Deterrence Down Under

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Derek Grossman joins the discussion with Carl to unpack how countries across the Indo‑Pacific view—and respond to—China’s growing influence. As Grossman notes, the Indo‑Pacific is far from monolithic, with regional actors pursuing distinct strategies shaped by history, geography, and national interest.The conversation examines Australia’s evolving defense posture, the implications of AUKUS, and the role of U.S. alliances in shaping regional security. It also explores China’s expanding diplomatic footprint, including the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside concerns over coercion, influence, and strategic signaling. From ASEAN’s careful balancing to Vietnam’s nuanced approach, this episode highlights why calibrated engagement and credible deterrence remain essential in managing great‑power competition.This discussion offers valuable insight into the complexity of Indo‑Pacific security dynamics—and why understanding regional perspectives is critical to shaping effective strategy.https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

China’s rapid nuclear expansion is reshaping global deterrence—and it’s happening faster than many realize. In this episode, Christine and Carl break down China’s evolving nuclear strategy, from new missile systems and submarine-launched capabilities to alarming tests near Lop Nur. They explore what a growing arsenal—potentially reaching the thousands by the 2030s—means for strategic stability, first‑strike dynamics, and regional security in Australia and the Indo‑Pacific. Essential listening for anyone concerned about the future of nuclear deterrence and global security.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence StudiesLike and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrenceX.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrenceYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQRumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrenceGlobal Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christina are joined by renowned counterintelligence expert Nick Eftimiades for a deep dive into the evolving landscape of Chinese espionage. Drawing on decades of research and firsthand experience, the conversation unpacks how China’s intelligence system operates as a whole‑of‑society enterprise—one that incentivizes espionage behavior across state, economic, and social domains. The discussion explores the organizational structure of Chinese intelligence, the expanding use of technology and social media, and the growing threat of economic and political interference. With a focus on Australia and other middle powers, the episode examines how foreign interference laws are being tested by these evolving tactics and why education, international cooperation, and economic diversification are critical countermeasures. This timely conversation underscores the urgent need for collaboration among like‑minded nations to build a credible deterrence framework capable of responding to China’s covert influence operations and safeguarding national security. Nicholas Eftimiades retired in 2017 after a 34‑year career with the U.S. Department of Defense, serving with the CIA, as a Special Agent in the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security, and as a Senior Intelligence Officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). His senior DIA roles included Chief of Counterterrorism Operations and leadership of the Transnational Issues, Futures, and Space Divisions. He is a recipient of the National Intelligence Council Achievement Award and the DIA Director’s Intelligence Award.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this compelling episode of Deterrence Down Under, host Carl Rhodes sits down with Lachlan Colquhoun—one of Australia’s leading voices in counterterrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE). They unpack how Australia confronts today’s complex security landscape through a coordinated, whole‑of‑government approach. Colquhoun offers a candid look at the evolving nature of violent extremism, the challenges of defining emerging threats, and what recent incidents—such as the Bondi Beach attack—reveal about shifts in motivation and behavior. He also explores how online technologies accelerate radicalization and why community engagement remains essential to prevention. Clear-eyed, timely, and deeply informative, this episode sheds light on the strategies and partnerships that form the backbone of Australia’s national resilience. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this conversation, Carl and Christine welcome Edward Geist, of RAND Corporation, to explore the concept of civil defense during the Cold War, its evolution, and its implications for modern deterrence strategies. They discuss the goals of civil defense in the US and Soviet Union, differences in their approaches, and lessons that can be applied to contemporary defense planning. The conversation highlights the complexities of preparing for nuclear conflict and the challenges of balancing civil defense with other military priorities.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of "Deterrence Down Under," hosts Carl and Christine delve into the complexities of defense spending, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by Australia. They discuss the balance between immediate, near-term, and long-term defense investments, highlighting the strategic decisions involved in allocating resources for current capabilities versus future advancements. The conversation touches on Australia's commitment to the AUKUS pact, the impact of budget constraints on defense readiness, and the importance of missile defense in maintaining national security. They also explore the broader implications of deterrence strategies and the role of integrated defense systems in ensuring stability.

Carl and Christine explore how Australia can strengthen deterrence through air power—its challenges, strategic options, and evolving force structure. They’re joined by Chris McInnes, Executive Director of the Air Power Institute, to discuss the unique role of air power in securing Australia’s vast maritime environment and examine how emerging technologies like drones and long-range strike platforms might fit into the strategy.Chris McInnes is Executive Director at the Air Power Institute. He is an air power and national security expert with 25 years of experience in the military, government, and industry and is also a frequent commentator and speaker at defence seminars here in Australia. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

Carl and Christine discuss how Australia’s history influences its worldview, its alliances, and its approach to national security strategy. Over the past 80 years, Australia’s contributions to the U.S. alliance have weighed heavily on strategic thought. A new approach, focused on the maritime domain, is needed to effectively shape, deter, and respond to challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and maximise new capabilities from AUKUS.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts https://thinkdeterrence.com/outreach/ Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, the Carl, Christine, and Natalie discuss the complexities of extended nuclear deterrence in Australia, tracing its historical roots and examining the current strategic environment. They explore the evolution of Australia's nuclear policy, the changing threat landscape from 2012 to today, and the public perception of nuclear deterrence. The conversation also delves into the differences between nuclear strategy in the Pacific and Europe, and the future of deterrence, weighing the merits of nuclear weapons against missile defense systems.Australia and the Bomb: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137477392Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts https://thinkdeterrence.com/outreach/ Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this solo podcast, Carl has thoughts on the recently released ASPI Cost of Defence report and the discussions in Canberra about its findings. He also shares some insights into who’s advocating for increased defence spending and what new capabilities Australia should be investing in.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts https://thinkdeterrence.com/outreach/ Like and follow us –LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode, Carl and Natalie discuss Russia's military activities in the Indo-Pacific, Australia's national security strategies, and the contrasting approaches to deterrence between the Biden and Trump administrations. They explore the implications for Australia and the role of whole-of-government coordination when working with partners and allies to enact deterrence in the region. Note - Indonesia signed up to the TPNW with the Solomon Islands as of Sep. 2024. This was after Russia flew two nuclear-capable bombers on a patrol mission out of the Manuhua Air Force Base, Indonesia, on what appeared to be an intelligence gathering exercise in 2017. But, prior to news that Russia was seeking to base Russian nuclear-capable bombers in February 2024. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Like and follow us –LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

This episode discusses the mission and importance of the School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies (SANDS) with director Dr. Deaile. We also explore ways to ensure extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe given the growing capabilities of our adversaries.Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Like and follow us –LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com/ X.com: https://x.com/security_wonk Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode, Christine and Natalie engage with Dr. Mariana Budjeryn, a nuclear historian, to discuss her book 'Inheriting the Bomb' and the complexities surrounding Ukraine's nuclear disarmament. They explore the historical context of Ukraine's nuclear arsenal, the narratives surrounding its disarmament, and the implications of security assurances from major powers. Mariana shares her personal reflections on the ongoing war in Ukraine, the challenges faced by nuclear facilities under occupation, and the lessons learned for international security and cooperation.