“Comment on “Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It”” by Jhrosenberg

About this episode

Jhrosenberg critiques and reflects on the value of forecasting research and its impact.

Originally posted as a comment on this post. Reposting for visibility and since it is lengthy enough to be a standalone post. I plan to post a more comprehensive update in future describing FRI's impact and theory of change in more detail. Summary [Relevant context/COI: I'm CEO at the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), an organization which I co-founded with Phil Tetlock and others. Much of the below is my personal perspective, though it is informed by my work. I don't speak for others on my team. I’m sharing an initial reply now, and our team at FRI will share a larger post in future that offers a more comprehensive reflection on these topics.] Thanks for the post — I think it's important to critically question the value of funds going to forecasting, and this post offers a good opportunity for reflection and discussion. In brief, I share many of your concerns about forecasting and related research, but I'm also more positive on both its impact so far and its future expected impact. A summary of some key points: Much of the impact of forecasting research on specific decision-makers is not public. For example, FRI has informed decisions on [...] --- Outline: (00:27) Summary…

People in this episode

Host: EA Forum Team

Topics covered

• forecasting
• research impact
• decision-making
• AI timelines
• critical analysis

Keywords

• forecasting
• research
• impact
• decision-making
• AI timelines
• critique

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Forecasting Research Institute

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