Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

There’s optimism amongst the country's chief financial officers.   Employment Agency Hunter Campbell's Mood of the CFO survey has found 57% of businesses have met or exceeded their revenue targets.   But 45% are concerned the world economy is going to deteriorate.   That figure's twice as high as last year's survey.   Hunter Campbell Managing Partner Lee Marshall told Andrew Dickens New Zealand businesses are getting on with it, and we’re trucking along better than expected.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pike River families are disappointed by mixed messages from New Zealand First over planned health and safety law changes.  Leader Winston Peters told protesters yesterday he'll dump the Health and Safety at Work Act amendments if re-elected next term.  Stand with Pike spokesperson Sonya Rockhouse told Andrew Dickens Peters earlier told families he didn’t support the bill in its current form, leaving them feeling encouraged.  She says Peters did an interview this week which made them even more positive, but overnight his rhetoric has changed.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The hubbub yesterday over the Conservation Amendment Bill brought to light three issues for me. Firstly, how bad much of our law is, and that stems back to how it’s written and processed. Secondly, that many concerned organisations are not afraid to scaremonger and exaggerate to win their way. And thirdly, how many New Zealanders rely on social media to keep informed on the issues of the day. For those who were spooked by the news that land in the Conservation estate could be swapped or sold, they only had to go to Google, and they could find a myriad of expert opinion. For many, much of the new law updates were sorely needed for a piece of legislation that is 40 years old. On Newsroom, one expert planner also pointed out the sales and swaps of conservation land already happens, and all this amendment does is make the process less clunky. Others pointed out that it takes power away from a Minister which was a check and balance. All agreed it’s a badly written law that’s been rushed and is currently before a select committee with a tight deadline of July 2nd. A complaint about our modern law that Sir Geoffrey Palmer pointed out last week. But one wondered why the reality and the rhetoric were so different, and that lies at the feet of groups like Greenpeace and Forest and Bird who made it seem like 60% was going to be sold. And then that was amplified by so many getting their information from biased social media, and not realising the full story. A word of advice to the Government: you’ve failed to explain this and you might want to take the foot off the gas.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A cyber security expert says AI has created an arms race between attackers and defenders.  Five Eyes agencies have issued a warning rogue states could use artificial intelligence to overwhelm the West’s cyber defences within months, not years.  The spy agencies have issued tips for organisations to shore-up their defences and take a cautious line on new technology.  Cybersecurity advisory organisation Ciso Lens Country Manager Nadia Yousef told Ryan Bridge it's a race to see who can find vulnerabilities first.  She says AI is speeding up what's always been an incredibly challenging job, but hopefully it can lift the defences too.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So let's talk about that weird interview yesterday.  No not the one with Winston Peters, the one with Chris Hipkins.  He has planted Labour in an almost impossible-to-justify position on NZ Super.  On Ryan Bridge Today yesterday he said Labour will not change the age of entitlement. Will not means-test. Will not cut it. Will keep it in full indefinitely.  We currently have around four people working to support every pensioner. That will be two workers for every pensioner within the next 10-20 years.  Anyone with half a brain can see it's not sustainable, in full, forever. I recall following Phil Goff on the campaign trail in 2011 (hospital pass). He was all about 'making the hard decisions for tomorrow, today'. Well Chippy is running from that motto quicker than Usain Bolt in a pair of Nikes.  What he's doing here is making a pretty blunt political assessment: this will win us some working class votes and keep us competitive with Winston and National.  He's going after labourers who can't wait till 65 to retire, let alone 67. He's going after low-wage workers who can barely afford groceries, let alone an extra 3.5% on compulsory KiwiSaver.  You could argue that's smart politics. Pick a point of difference. Hammer it home.  The risk is massive though. Labour's biggest Achilles' heel is taxes.  Telling people you'll keep an unaffordable, expensive, universal programme forever will leave them wondering who's going to pay for it. Who'll be taxed next.  Once you add in the pay equity claims at up to $13 billion, the gaps start to look more like big black holes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first All Blacks squad under Dave Rennie has been unveiled.  There are four fresh faces – the Hurricanes’ Xavier Numia, Fehi Fineanganofo, and Josh Moorby, as well as the Blues’ Anton Serger.  Ardie Savea is returning from his sabbatical in Japan to captain the squad.   Sports Commentator Sam Ackerman told Ryan Bridge it’s a list that reflects an optimistic, forward-thinking brand of rugby.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stock traders across the UK are hoping the next Prime Minister will lead to some much-needed stability. Sir Keir Starmer has set out his plan to resign as UK Prime Minister and says a successor will be in place by Parliament's return in September at the latest.   It means Downing Street will welcome its seventh leader in a decade. Financial Times Whitehall editor Lucy Fisher told Ryan Bridge markets had already priced in a likely leadership change. She says the signals pointing towards a fairly seamless transition of power, rather than a bloody contest, are being welcomed by the markets.  Former Cabinet minister Andy Burnham has now returned to Parliament as MP for Makerfield and is considered a shoo-in to become the next Prime Minister. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sir Keir Starmer's resignation has come as no surprise to those who listen to this show – or pretty much any show on this station.  But what should worry us is "why".  Sure, he was a dud. Sure, he was a bit of a goofball – he wasn't cool.  But on immigration he was, at-least, trying. Net immigration was 85% below peak. Crime there is apparently falling. The economy's stumbling, but not fallen over.  The Times newspaper nailed it with a headline: 'Panicking politicians addicted to iPhones oust a Prime Minister'. In just ten years they've had Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer, and now, shortly, Burnham.  Who'll probably end up just as loathed and hated as the bloke who went before him.  I don't think this is just a politics thing, and certainly not just a British thing.  We humans are undergoing an evolutionary metamorphosis into impatient and petulant children.  All of us.  Yesterday researchers reported kids can't watch movies these days because their attention spans are too short – and movies are meant to be fun.  Musical albums are a thing of the past. Even the idea of a sitting and listening to entire song is foreign to some – a few seconds or hooks of a chorus on TikTok passes as easy listening these days.  Forget reading a book.  Is it any wonder the world is chewing through political leaders like there's no tomorrow?  And consuming more content than the world ever has in its history, yet somehow ending up dumber than beforehand?  And the irony of AI, the great saviour of the universe, the technological equivalent of Andy Burnham, will save us time. Will give us more time.  To read and watch movies and switch political leaders.  What on earth will we do with it all? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A tax expert says the Greens' proposed approach to tackling corporate greed - is likely to be unpopular.  If elected, the party's promising to add new super rich, gifts and inheritance taxes, a major banks levy and a big tech tax.  It also wants to lift the corporate tax rate to 33 percent - for large companies like supermarkets, gentailers and banks.  PWC tax partner Sandy Lau shares her thoughts with Ryan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This weekend’s Super Rugby Pacific Final is shaping up to be a blockbuster.  The Hurricanes are hosting the Chiefs at a sold-out Hnry Stadium.  The Chiefs are chasing their first title in thirteen years, but the Hurricanes are hungry to lift the trophy again, a decade after their only win.  CEO Tony Philp told Andrew Dickens they know the Chiefs are going to come down and play an epic game.  He says it’s the two best teams, and they’re super excited about taking that challenge on and doing it in front of what’s set to be a loud and boisterous home crowd.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government says manufacturers share its goal of doubling export receipts.  Stats NZ says equipment and food production were the biggest drivers of the 0.8% rise in GDP in the March quarter.  BNZ data shows manufacturing activity's dipped again since the fuel crisis started.  But Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing Cameron Brewer told Andrew Dickens things are trending up.  He says signs are positive, with strong forward orders and confidence improving across the country.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We’ve come to the end of a fascinating week in politics. But what week in politics isn’t? It kicked off last Sunday with Nicola Willis alleging a massive hidden bill in Labour’s policies. She also had a crack at the lack of policies from Labour. And while that entertained her base who already hold that view, there were many who said she pulled the trigger too soon and it was a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black. Heather said it was way too soon, and it should have been left to closer to Election Day. Cameron Bagrie said that all parties have hidden bills and because of our fiscal state, all policies are going to have to be paid for by debt. So, Nicola’s shot could have backfired. And Audrey Young pointed out that last election Nicola Willis released her fiscal policy with costings only four days before advance voting started, and 17 days before Election Day. This year's election is 141 days away. Look I enjoy this election-style biffo because it’s great grist to the mill for people in my job, but I too wonder why National has pulled the trigger so early. It raises the question whether they’re very worried about the Opposition beating them. It also shows their hand, and come Election time maybe Labour will be better prepared. Maybe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data due out today is expected to show our economy was continuing to recover before the fuel crisis really began to bite.  Stats NZ is releasing GDP figures for the March quarter at 10.45.  It's expected to show the economy grew between 0.7 and 1% between January and March, but it's likely to have contracted again between April and June.  Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Andrew Dickens normally this is a phase in which we’d be able to get some strong growth, but there are still some headwinds against the economy.  He says we still had interest rate relief over the past few years, but it’s more a case of the Reserve Bank taking its foot off the break, but not stomping on the accelerator to get the economy going again.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.