Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

iOS 27 is raising questions about Meta ads tracking ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Tony Chopp and Steve Rekuc examine what changed, what CTC is seeing in conversion data, and which parts of your Shopify and Meta setup deserve a closer look.CTC’s early analysis showed Meta conversion rates down roughly 15% year over year from October 8–18. That decline caught the team’s attention, but it does not establish Apple’s update as the cause. Tony and Steve explain how to investigate your conversion tracking before drawing that conclusion.In this episode:What iOS 27’s browser-based tracking changes target and how they differ from iOS 14.5.How missing or incomplete conversion signals can affect attribution and ad targeting.What to review in your Meta Pixel, Conversions API (CAPI), and Shopify data-sharing settings.Comparing Shopify orders with purchase events in Meta Events Manager to investigate missing or duplicate events.Why event match quality matters and what changing iOS adoption means for the timing of incrementality tests.Start with the last 30 days of Shopify purchases and the corresponding purchase events in Meta. Tony and Steve explain what discrepancies can reveal and where to investigate before holiday spending increases.Show Notes:Go to https://www.universalads.com/middleman and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.Learn more: https://commonthreadco.comTrack your brand’s performance: https://statlas.ioWork with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contactHave a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Black Friday ad spend can generate a different incremental return than it does during a typical sales period. Luke Austin, President of Common Thread Collective, joins Richard Gaffin to explain how incrementality testing can help you decide where your holiday budget belongs.They discuss what CTC has observed in promotional-period tests and why your usual return on ad spend (ROAS) target may need adjusting during Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM). The goal is to understand which sales your ads generate beyond what would have happened without them, then use that information to guide spending.From there, Luke explores where brands could reinvest if the results support a change, including offers that evolve throughout the day and a larger role for creators in promoting them. He shares examples brands have already tried and outlines his proposal for coordinating offers across larger creator networks.In this episode:Why Black Friday ad spend can be more or less incremental than spending during a typical sales periodUsing conversion lift studies and holdout tests to measure additional salesApplying incrementality findings to Meta and Google ad budgets and ROAS targetsGiving shoppers new reasons to buy through flash sales and changing gifts with purchaseEquipping creators with approved offers, inventory updates, and financial limitsGiving creators room to develop their own messaging while preserving essential product requirementsShow Notes:Go to https://www.universalads.com/middleman and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.Learn more: https://commonthreadco.comTrack your brand’s performance: https://statlas.ioWork with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contactHave a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Joy Sharma, who leads CTC's seven-figure service offering, joins Richard with one goal: give every 7-figure ecommerce brand a clear BFCM prep playbook before the season hits.They walk through five areas in order from least to most impact.Housekeeping: Make sure your ad account billing limit is higher than your expected spend. Check your Commerce Manager, confirm your pixel is firing with 90%+ match rate, and clear any blockages before November.Offer: Your discount needs to be 20% or higher. Anything below that doesn't register. Simplify it — no tiered structures, no math for the customer. If your BFCM customers have weak LTV, build bundles around AOV instead of chasing subscriptions. And have something for your whales — Joy has sold $1,000 bundles for brands with $50 products. People don't realize how rich their best customers are.Email and SMS: Run at least three emails a week during the pre-Black Friday period. One email a day during Black Friday week. Up to three emails on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Immediately after Cyber Monday, run a two-day extension. Then shift to a free shipping cutoff sale. Most brands stop on Cyber Monday. That last window has a lot of revenue left in it. Send on your peak hours — use your historical data to find them.Landing page: The homepage is the hero. Run your ads there. Add a countdown timer, a sticky bar, slashed prices in a different color, and at least three product blocks (bestsellers, highest AOV, highest margin). Build a whale bundle. Turn off your evergreen first-time-buyer pop-ups.Creative (highest impact): CTC's research across hundreds of brands found that BFCM-specific ads drive only 30% of total Meta spend during the holiday period. Evergreen carries 70%. Don't sacrifice October ad production to make more November ads — October ads spend 50% more over Q4. But nobody makes enough Black Friday ads. One brand went from $5K a day to $55K a day by making 1,500 ads. Creative hierarchy: frames first, then catalogs with sale creative, then statics with offers overlaid, then video remixes of top performers, then new creator content if you have capacity.BLACK FRIDAY AD RESEARCH: https://commonthreadco-global.com/bfcmShow Notes:Go to https://www.universalads.com/middleman and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.Learn more: https://commonthreadco.comTrack your brand’s performance: https://statlas.ioWork with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contactHave a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Justin Palmer, Founder & CEO of Home Life Brands, joins Taylor Holiday live at Commerce Roundtable in San Diego to discuss Black Friday customer retention and turning holiday shoppers into customers who stay.After 12 years in pet ecommerce, the company behind iHeartDogs and The Hero Company prioritizes acquiring customers in September and October, when they’re more likely to buy again during the holidays. Justin explains how member discounts, early product access, and daily inventory planning shape the brand’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday strategy.For DTC brands preparing for BFCM 2026, Justin shares an approach to driving repeat purchases and building membership revenue around products customers don’t need every month. Charitable experiences and personal impact updates give members an ongoing reason to engage beyond the initial discount.In this episode:- Why September and October acquisitions tend to return during the holidays, while November and December buyers are more often one-time gift shoppers- Finding the intersection of three customer interests to develop more specific products and ad creative- Building membership revenue around products with limited natural repeat purchase frequency- Giving members early access and discounted pricing before Black Friday- Testing product concepts with existing customers and cold audiences before ordering inventory- Using daily inventory projections to adjust pricing and ad spend ahead of the shipping cutoff- Giving iHeartDogs members a reason to stay through meal donations, monthly rescue flights, and personal impact dashboards- Producing AI ad creative at scale when predicting winners is increasingly difficult- Building toward automated offers, from a discount idea to a landing page and published ad creative- Why Meta remains the primary acquisition channel, and where TikTok Shop, Amazon, and AppLovin fit- Moving media buyer compensation toward contribution margin rather than last-click revenue aloneKey stat: Justin says memberships account for roughly 25% of the business’s revenue, helping provide stability outside the holiday season.Community impact: The Hero Company has also funded more than $2 million in donations to organizations that match veterans with service dogs.This episode is brought to you by:- Trybe: https://bit.ly/4xXvD08- Alia: https://bit.ly/4yuP8ON- Bill: https://bit.ly/4e9JQQmShow Notes: Go to ⁠https://www.universalads.com/middleman ⁠and use code UACTC to get $2,500 in matched ad credits when you spend $2,500.- Learn more: https://commonthreadco.com- Track your brand’s performance: https://statlas.io- Work with us: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact- Have a question for the Ecommerce Playbook? Email [email protected]

Tyler and Alex from TBAR just joined CTC — and in this episode, Shack sits down with them right after their first-ever stage presentation at Commerce Roundtable to break down everything they know about building winning TikTok Shop programs.This is the tactical breakdown behind one of the fastest-growing creator commerce agencies in the space: how they built their client roster (Ridge, David Protein, Jones Road and more), why video volume beats virality every time, how they structure creator communities in Discord, and where social commerce is heading next.In This Episode:Why TikTok limits views on shoppable videos (and why that actually doesn't matter)The GMV Max algorithm explained: why it's a slot machine, not a scienceHow to get 3 videos back for every sample you sendThe creator community flywheel: Discord, coaching, competitions, retainersHalo effect to Amazon, Shopify, and retail — when to expect it and how to measure itWhere social commerce is heading: YouTube Shop, Meta Reels, and live sellingShow Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4cbihFx to Claim $25,000 in Lutiq platform creditsExplore Tikok Shops; https://commonthreadco.com/pages/tiktok-shop-agencyExplore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engineThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

CTC just acquired TBAR Partners — the fastest-growing TikTok Shop agency in the country. In this episode, Luke sits down with co-founders Tyler Brechbiel and Alex Rudolph to walk through the origin story, the playbook behind their results, and what this partnership means for ecommerce brands.Tyler and Alex built TBAR from a college dorm room in June 2025. Sixteen months later they're managing over $5M in monthly GMV for brands like Ridge, HexClad, and Grüns — and now they're part of Common Thread Collective.In this episode:How TBAR went from zero to managing Ridge, HexClad, and Grüns in under 18 monthsThe creator recruitment and Discord community system that 3x's video output per sampleWhy video volume and GMV have a direct correlation — and how to use thatThe "blitz launch" strategy that sold Naked Sundays out of inventory overnightHow Ridge's tracker card — their worst D2C seller — became their top TikTok Shop productThe volume-based competition that generated 7,000 videos in a single month for RidgeWhy 90% of TikTok Shop revenue comes from the top 10 affiliates — and how to find them fastWhat GMV Max actually is and how to feed it correctlyTikTok LIVE selling and the halo effect into Meta, Amazon, and retailHow Statlas will track the full demand cascade for TBAR's brand rosterShow Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4cbihFx to Claim $25,000 in Lutiq platform creditsExplore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engineThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Taylor and Andrew dig into three topics that have more in common than you think: why the supplement industry struggles to build real moats, whether the Dodgers and Clippers crossed ethical and legal lines, and the most important marketing distinction almost nobody is making between influencers and creators.Topics covered in this episode: Why no supplement brand has a defensible customer acquisition costAG1, Gruns, and how a form factor change can destroy a cohortIMA's billion-dollar debt facility built specifically to fund CACWhere the real moats in health and wellness actually are: hardware, data, and telehealthMark Walter, insurance float allegations, and the Dodgers cheating scandalThe Clippers punishment: $30M and five first-round picksParity in sports: why big markets winning is actually better for the productJoy as the delta between expectation and realityCreators vs. influencers: why this distinction matters more than your entire creative strategyThe Mark Dowdle and Rapid hat story: what real influence actually looks likeHow to approach influencer marketing at $0 vs. 8-figure revenueEquity deals, embedded influencers, and the Jason Khalipa modelDHH on AI: the most optimistic take Taylor has heardAgency cash management: should you hold reserves or get a revolver?Show Notes:Visit eCapital to see how much working capital you may qualify for: https://bit.ly/4xO3VDdExplore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engineThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin break down the Prophit Engine, CTC's system that combines a head of growth, Meta media buyer, and creative strategist into a single profit-engineered role powered by AI, Statlas, and a decade of operational methodology.They cover what you actually get, why it works, what you stop hiring for, and the kind of brand that gets the most out of it.In this episode:Why forecasting within 3% across $3B in GMV is now one person's jobHow the Prophit Engineer role collapses three positions into oneWhat "Push to Build" means for Meta media buying efficiencyThe Creative Demand Plan and how it eliminates creative guessworkThe total technology stack value (and why the price undercuts it by half a million)What the ideal PE8 client actually looks likeWhy the best brands let go of day-to-day and hold CTC accountable to outcomesKey stat: CTC brands that worked with us for all of 2025 grew top-line revenue 35% and contribution margin 41.5%.The Common Thread Collective 7-Figure Growth Workshop: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/sept-26-eventShow Notes:Your free LTV audit is waiting at smile.io: https://bit.ly/4bKlMCvExplore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engineThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have