Futur-ish

If you expected four leading foresight professionals to come and deliver a grab-bag of incredible intel, you are sorely mistaken. Instead we’re joined by Dr. Bree Trevena and Charlie Warwick to talk about recent reflections on what it means to be a ‘good’ futurist in the time of systemic complexity, fracturing identities and AI. Links:Perspective A ‘Kill Switch’ Could Shutter Europe’s Access to US Tech. Here’s How. Tech Policy Press: https://www.techpolicy.press/washington-could-activate-a-kill-switch-to-terminate-european-access-to-us-tech-heres-how-it-could-work/ UK bank bosses plan to set up Visa and Mastercard alternative amid Trump fears, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/feb/16/uk-bank-bosses-plan-visa-mastercard-alternativeSlight decrease in deaths on Dutch roads last year, NL Times: https://nltimes.nl/2025/04/17/slight-decrease-deaths-dutch-roads-last-yearThere Are No Cars in Wakanda, SPUR: https://www.spur.org/news/2020-02-20/there-are-no-cars-wakandaStudioCone’s Plurality Player Wants You to Feel the Planet, Imagine Magazine: https://imaginemagazine.co/news/studiocones-plurality-player-wants-you-to-feel-the-planet/APF Compass (What Makes a Futurist): https://www.apf.org/compassMind the Gap Refisited, Nordmann & Rip: https://www.nature.com/articles/nnano.2009.26 Building Performance Reimagined, CIBSE: https://www.cibse.org/policy-advocacy/industry-initiatives/building-performance-reimagined/

As we’ve documented before (see; Kessler Syndrome), the infrastructures we rely on and take for granted are increasingly crumbling and under threat. Cue a surge of investment and interest in alternatives to the systems that have shaped the global economy for the last few decades.It’s something we talk about all the time, throwing at the end of decks and workshops as a ‘things might get weird’ moment - but what actually is quantum sensing? And how might it reshape our relationship with physical reality?Links‘To live a normal life again, it’s a dream come true’: UK’s first climate evacuees can cast off their homes and trauma, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/09/to-live-a-normal-life-again-its-a-dream-come-true-uks-first-climate-evacuees-can-cast-off-their-homes-and-traumaGPS jamming shows ships in "impossible" locations, Kuehne+Nagel: https://mykn.kuehne-nagel.com/news/article/gps-jamming-shows-ships-in-impossible-locatio-09-Apr-2024This Pokémon Go GPS hack is the most impressive yet, The Verge: https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2016/7/28/12311290/pokemon-go-cheat-gps-signal-spoofingQ-CTRL's New Maritime Quantum Navigation Solution Successfully Undergoes First Defense Trials at Sea, Q-Ctrl: https://q-ctrl.com/blog/q-ctrls-new-maritime-quantum-navigation-solution-successfully-undergoes-first-defense-trials-at-seaArmed with quantum sensors, France eyes leaps in electronic warfare, DefenseNews: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/25/armed-with-quantum-sensors-france-eyes-leaps-in-electronic-warfare/Earth’s Gravity Field, NASA: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/earths-gravity-field-3666/Magnetic Navigation at Scale: Advancing Resilient Flight Through Quantum Sensing, ACubed: https://acubed.airbus.com/blog/quantum/magnetic-navigation-at-scale-advancing-resilient-flight-through-quantum-sensing/DIU’s Transition of Quantum Sensing (TQS) Field Testing To Begin Across Five Critical Areas, DIU: https://www.diu.mil/latest/dius-transition-of-quantum-sensing-tqs-field-testing-to-begin-across-fiveJapan Boosts Semiconductor, Quantum R&D with Trillion-Yen Budget, Quantum Insides: https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/01/16/japan-boosts-semiconductor-quantum-rd-with-trillion-yen-budget/Google claims 'quantum supremacy' for computer, BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993Quantum Sensing Will Test Legal Frameworks for Privacy, Tech Policy Press: https://www.techpolicy.press/quantum-sensing-will-test-legal-frameworks-for-privacy/

While it’s generally agreed that the global population is continuing to expand (at least until flatlining at the end of the century) for some parts of the world it is falling dangerously precipitously with the potential for severe economic and security impacts. For the wealthy elite of Silicon Valley, this is an ideological failing, one that their blogs and op-eds are ready to tackle with shady conferences that have a whiff of something mid-century Europe about them, and not in the nice furniture way. For others, it’s an opportunity to throw (quite a lot) of money at the problem and see what sticks. Links:With new ordinance, Santa Fe becomes first city to tie minimum wage to rental costs, Albuquerque Journal: https://www.abqjournal.com/news/with-new-ordinance-santa-fe-becomes-first-city-to-tie-minimum-wage-to-rental-costs/2893470Fertility rate falls to lowest globally, Taipei Times: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/01/10/2003850357South Korea birthrate rises for the first time in nine years, AlJazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/26/south-korea-birthrate-rises-for-the-first-time-in-nine-yearsDoes the U.S. Have a Fertility Crisis? Johns Hopkins: https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2026/is-the-us-birth-rate-decliningThe Ultimate status symbol? A big family, Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/a4025e93-7552-4f8f-8ce2-e785a7d950a4The influencers who want the world to have more babies - and say the White House is on their side, BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ypdy05jl9oElon wants you to have more babies, Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-elon-musk-population-collapse-baby-push/The Far Right’s Plan to Explode the Population, Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/28/natalism-conference-austin-00150338Your baby could qualify for $1,000 with a Trump Account. Here’s what to know, Associated Press: https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2026/your-baby-could-qualify-for-1000-with-a-trump-account-heres-what-to-know/National child care policy 2.0 for ages 0-6, Executive Yuan: https://english.ey.gov.tw/News3/9E5540D592A5FECD/7b033800-d295-4a7a-8fba-dfbf617142d6What birth rate crisis? Here’s how one city in Taiwan is bucking the island’s worrying trend, Straits Times: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chips-powerhouse-hsinchu-a-bright-spot-amid-taiwans-birth-rate-crisisThe Impact of the Real Estate Market on Fertility, NBER: https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-fertility?page=1&perPage=50A South Korean firm is offering to pay its workers $75,000 each time they have a baby, CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/06/business/south-korea-firm-child-cash-payout-intl-hnkFollowing Booyoung, Krafton to Offer 100 Mil. Won Childbirth Incentive to Employees, BusinessKorea: https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=235577It’s Me, Hi, I’m the Problem I’m 33, New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/business/economy/33-year-olds-millennials.html

All over the world, healthcare systems are straining under the weight of ageing populations, crippling costs and overheads and new and novel conditions exacerbated by the biodiversity crisis. A spate of new gadgets promises to give us more control over our health but if the social problems that underpin failing healthcare aren’t solved, how much can they do? Could we instead use seismic sensors in our feet, colour sensors on our heads and piezoelectric patches on our skin to talk to the planet? To hang out with rivers? LInks:Anonymous crypto gambler made $436,000 on Maduro capture, BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2gn93292doGambling platform Polymarket not paying bets on US invasion of Venezuela, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/07/wager-platform-polymarket-will-not-pay-out-on-bets-on-us-invasion-of-venezuelaRoxana Chicas designs wearable patch for early detection of heat exposure, Dezeen: https://www.dezeen.com/2025/09/28/roxana-chicas-designs-wearable-patch-for-early-detection-of-heat-exposure/REFILE: Atlanta scientist creates biopatch to protect farmers from the heat and heat-related deaths, Reuters: https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/refile-atlanta-scientist-creates-biopatch-to-protect-farmers-from-the-heat-and-heat-related-deathsInxects vest lets architects "feel" the health of a site like a sixth sense, Dezeen: https://www.dezeen.com/2025/01/21/gaia-communication-system-wearable-inxects/Cyborg artist Moon Ribas feels earthquakes, Next Nature: https://nextnature.org/en/magazine/story/2020/moon-ribasNobody Told Me Rivers Dream, Superflux: https://superflux.in/index.php/work/nobody-told-me-rivers-dream/#The Americans Who Stick Gadgets Under Their Skin, VICE: https://www.vice.com/en/article/hannes-wiedemann-american-grinders-biohacking-photo-book/A 3-in-1 wearable and implantable biopatch for integrated in-body energy harvesting, sensing, and self-powered diabetic wound treatments: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211285525001028

Somewhere, in a Trump administration office, someone decided that architects aren’t all that and now they’re being de-professionalised and removed from public debate. At the same time, more and more research is telling us that architecture happens inside your head and we need to design that way. But what does this have to do with World War 2 battleships and the state of education? Radha thinks that the banning of architects from public discourse gives us an opportunity to reimagine what ways, for who and how the built environment is imagined and designed. LinksArchitecture no longer considered a "professional degree" in US, Dezeen: https://www.dezeen.com/2025/11/24/architecture-degree-not-professional-usa/Making Federal Architecture Great Again, Whitehouse.gov: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/08/making-federal-architecture-beautiful-again/ Could bad buildings damage your mental health? The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/sep/16/bad-buildings-damage-mental-health-research-anxiety-depressionWhy Ugly Architecture Is Bad for Your Health, The Architectural Uprising: https://www.architecturaluprising.com/studies/why-ugly-architecture-is-bad-for-your-health/Cleo Valentine: We now know architecture can cause stress, Venetian Letter: https://venetianletter.com/2023/09/07/cleo-valentine-we-now-know-architecture-can-cause-stress/Trump doubles down on classical capital with "Arc de Trump" proposal, Dezeen: https://www.dezeen.com/2025/10/16/trump-triumphal-arch-proposal/Dazzle Camouflage, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dazzle_camouflageCV Dazzle, Adam Harvey: https://adam.harvey.studio/cvdazzle

The sun has been the biggest tech success story of the last quarter century. Solar panels are cheaper than fences, efficiency just keeps going up and people are installing them at rates that consistently exceed projections. A bottomless brunch of free photons might sound like the perfect gift, and for some, it is. However, for 250 years, we’ve built energy systems and grids around the core concept of scarcity and they’re fundamentally unequipped for the crisis of overabundance. Step in, friend of the pod, Australia, who are about to introduce a new plan to shock the system and drive a behaviour change that tells us more about what the future of energy might look like than you might think. LinksToo Cheap to Meter, NRC: https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/students/history-101/too-cheap-to-meter#:~:text=Strauss's%20optimism%20for%20fission%20continued,be%20metered%2C%20just%20as%20weAustralians have been offered free solar power. How do I get mine and will it make my energy bill cheaper? The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/04/australia-free-solar-power-scheme-how-when-houshold-billsThe Duck Curve, US Department of Energy: https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/confronting-duck-curve-how-address-over-generation-solar-energyQuotes, Hon. Chris Bowen: https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-more-victorian-communities-benefit-100-million-energy-upgrades#:~:text=%E2%80%9CGenerations%20of%20Australians%20have%20enjoyed,and%20keep%20their%20communities%20strong.Power to the people: the neighbours turning their London street into a solar power station, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/18/power-to-the-people-the-neighbours-turning-their-london-street-into-a-solar-power-station

The future comes at you at unexpected ways. If the bullish pronouncements of tech bros are to believed it’s in the gadgets, gizmos and gimmicks dominating our feeds. Meanwhile, the future is coming fast for a tiny town in the middle of England.Flooding comes at a terrible cost but what are we willing to pay? As the water reaches up to swallow Middle England, more and more places with hundreds of years of history are going to face grim choices about what’s worth preserving and what should be taken by the waters.LinksMP's anger as flood defences cash deadline missed, BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77zl24rm5eoThe flood-prone Worcestershire town being abandoned by insurers, Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/14/tenbury-wells-flood-prone-worcestershire-town-abandoned-by-insurersDramatic Moment North Carolina Homes COLLAPSE into Ocean from Hurricane Winds, YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3qplCLqppA‘This is a wake-up call’: the villagers who could be Britain’s first climate refugees, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

Truly, nothing is new and everything has happened before and so we find ourselves, amidst a collapsing geopolitical order with some very fancy gadgets (an expensive plane and some chips) going wanting and going missing. What connects them? A rumour that, coincidentally, started about the same time that JD Vance turned up in Munich to shake the NATO tree. To some it might be conspiracy, but never mistake for malice what is better attributed to complacency. Instead what we have here is a great example of one of the most interesting phenomena in futures and the fact that truly, nothing is new, and everything has happened before. Links:The End of History and the Last Man, Francis Fukuyama: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_ManSpain, Switzerland Cancel F35 Jet Order Over Trump’s Europe Policy, Defense Mirror: https://www.defensemirror.com/news/40014Three reasons Canada and Portugal may cancel order for US-made fighter jets. The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/europe-canada-portugal-f35-fighter-jets-trump-eurofighter-b2718770.htmlIndia rules out F-35s as defense ties with US face new turbulence. AeroTime: https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/india-rules-out-f-35s-as-defense-ties-with-us-face-new-turbulenceThe F-35 ‘Kill Switch’: Separating Myth from Reality, The Aviationist: https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/10/f-35-kill-switch-myth/DIY Tractor Repair Runs Afoul Of Copyright Law, NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2015/08/17/432601480/diy-tractor-repair-runs-afoul-of-copyright-lawUS farmers win right to repair John Deere equipment, BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64206913Inside the Biden Administration's Gamble to Freeze China’s AI Future, WIRED: https://www.wired.com/story/chips-china-artificial-intelligence-controlsCotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity, Tom Cotton: https://www.cotton.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cotton-introduces-bill-to-prevent-diversion-of-advanced-chips-to-americas-adversaries-and-protect-us-product-integrityCan “Location Verification” Stop AI Chip Smuggling?, AI Frontiers: https://ai-frontiers.org/articles/location-verification-ai-chipsKilling machines: how Russia and Ukraine’s race to perfect deadly pilotless drones could harm us all, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/ukraine-russia-autonomous-drones-aiU.S. Army Tests Robotic Vehicle near Russia, Defense Blog: https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-tests-robotic-vehicle-near-russia/1966: Children Imagine Life in the Year 2000, BBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xS8xX3usi4c Ghosts of My Life, Mark Fisher: https://burleyfisherbooks.com/products/9781780992266

While you're being relentlessly bombarded with multi-trillion dollar projections, promises and prognostications for the latest gizmo a quiet giant has been gobbling up a market share that in real, right-now life is three times the size of the entirety of AR and VR. And it's right at your feet. This mundane product doesn't usually get a look-in with futurists and our first guest, luminary designer Nick Foster, reckons that's a reflection of the subpar quality of the profession. Hey but don't sweat it, because Nick's new book 'Could, Should, Might, Don't; How We Think About the Future' is here to help you pay attention to what's important. Pull focus form the foolishness and chicanery of performing futurists and look at what really matters, the future that's all around us, quietly going about its business shaping the real experience of people's lives.LinksCould Should Might Don’t, Nick Foster: https://canongate.co.uk/books/5387-could-should-might-dont-how-we-think-about-the-future/ You’re Probably Thinking About The Future Wrong, Nick Foster: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/business/dealbook/future-nick-foster.htmlThe Future Mundane, Nick Foster: https://www.core77.com/posts/25678/the-future-mundane-25678AR and VR Headsets Market Size, Share, and Trends 2025 to 2034, Precedence Research: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/ar-and-vr-headsets-marketSocks Market Size, Share, and Trends 2025 to 2034, Precedence Research: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/socks-marketValue Creation in the Metaverse, McKinsey: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/value-creation-in-the-metaverse

You haven't seen everything they could do with mushrooms until you've seen a disaster rescue robot powered by a mycelium brain. Of course, mycelium's been the fêted darling of futurists, designers and technologists for the last few years and maybe you thought you'd had enough but, what if this cute little fellow is the route out of the computational cul-de-sac we might have driven ourselves into?

Introducing Futur-ish