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On the show
From 23 epsHost
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Recent episodes
New York’s Dress Rehearsal For 2028
Jun 22, 2026
59m 55s
Do Fed-Up Americans Really Move To Canada? And Other Listener Questions
Jun 18, 2026
15m 24s
What The Early 2026 Midterm Forecasts Say
Jun 15, 2026
1h 00m 50s
How Do Democrats Solve A Problem Like Graham Platner?
Jun 10, 2026
13m 14s
Why Right-Wing Populism Hasn’t Taken Off In Ireland
Jun 8, 2026
1h 10m 45s
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| Date | Episode | Topics | Guests | Brands | Places | Keywords | Sponsor | Length | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/22/26 | ![]() New York’s Dress Rehearsal For 2028 | New York City is not America. It is denser, younger, more renter-heavy and more ideologically left than the country as a whole.But that does not mean its politics are irrelevant to the national Democratic Party. In fact, this week’s congressional primaries in New York may offer a preview of several fights Democrats are likely to have between now and 2028.On today’s episode of the GD POLITICS podcast, politics writer Michael Lange joins me to make the case that Tuesday’s primaries are, in some ways, a dress rehearsal for the next Democratic presidential primary.We talk about the battle between socialists and progressives in New York’s 7th Congressional District, where a retiring Nydia Velázquez has opened up one of the youngest and bluest seats in the country. We also discuss the challenge to Rep. Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th District, where questions of race, ideology, Israel-Palestine and incumbency are all colliding.Then we turn to the race to replace Jerry Nadler in New York’s 12th District, one of the best-educated and most politically engaged places in the country, where the politics of artificial intelligence have become central. And we look at Dan Goldman’s primary challenge from Brad Lander in New York’s 10th District, where AIPAC, local political roots and the post-Mamdani left all loom large.Finally, we head north of the city to New York’s 17th Congressional District, one of the most important battleground seats in the country, where Democrats are deciding what kind of candidate they want to put up against Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.The big question running through all of this: Are these races revealing where the Democratic Party is headed, or are they mostly telling us about the strange and specific politics of New York? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe | 59m 55s | ||||||
| 6/18/26 | ![]() Do Fed-Up Americans Really Move To Canada? And Other Listener Questions | This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.Today’s episode is a long-overdue listener mailbag, which means we’re getting into some of the great questions that have been piling up in the paid-subscriber chat.For example, how do likely voter models actually work? Do people really move abroad because of politics, or is that mostly just something people say after an election doesn’t go their way? Could a senator switching parties ever change control of Congress? Are prediction markets headed for a steady stream of insider-trading scandals? And at what point does an unpopular president start losing control of his own party in Congress?There are also some more election-specific questions: whether Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo is one of the most endangered incumbents in the country, what makes Rob Sand a viable Democratic candidate in Iowa, how much the latest round of redistricting could shift the House map toward Republicans, and what history’s highest-turnout midterm might tell us about the political moment we’re living through now.Plus, we answer a question about recently ousted Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who, by the way, co-authored the legislation that made Juneteenth a federal holiday. A listener wanted to know whether he’ll seek retribution in his final months before retirement.This episode is also a bit different from usual: it’s just me, solo, doing my best talk-radio impression and answering as many of your questions as I can before my voice gives out.Thanks, as always, to everyone who submitted questions in the paid-subscriber chat. We didn’t get to all of them, which means we’ll have to do this again soon! | 15m 24s | ||||||
| 6/15/26 | ![]() What The Early 2026 Midterm Forecasts Say | We are four and a half months out from Election Day 2026, which means forecast season is officially beginning.On today’s episode of the GD POLITICS podcast, I spoke with two election forecasters whose models are beginning to shape how we understand the midterms: Lakshya Jain, head of political data at The Argument and CEO of Split Ticket, and Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub.VoteHub’s midterm forecast is officially live, but Split Ticket’s is set to publish later this week, meaning listeners are getting an exclusive preview of the work Lakshya has been doing.The forecasts agree on the big picture: Democrats are favored to win the House, while the Senate is close to a toss-up, with Republicans holding a slight edge. But under the hood, the models diverge in meaningful ways.VoteHub gives Democrats a 72 percent chance of winning the House, while The Argument/Split Ticket puts the odds at 90 percent. The biggest reason is how the two models treat the national political environment. VoteHub’s model is built around a Democratic advantage of about seven points on the generic ballot. The Argument/Split Ticket model, relying in part on its own likely-voter polling, sees something closer to a nine-point Democratic environment.The two also differ on whether to incorporate prediction markets. VoteHub does, though Zach emphasized that Kalshi markets are weighted lightly in low-volume House races and more heavily in higher-volume Senate races. His argument is that prediction markets can sometimes pick up information before polls do, especially from late-breaking scandals or meaningful early-vote data.Lakshya is more skeptical. He sees value in prediction markets, but worries about feedback loops and overreactions.The Senate picture is even more interesting. The two forecasts are almost identical at the chamber level: VoteHub gives Republicans a 55 percent chance of retaining the Senate, while The Argument/Split Ticket puts it at 53 percent.But the race-level forecasts differ substantially. In Georgia, VoteHub gives Sen. Jon Ossoff an 87 percent chance of winning reelection. The Argument/Split Ticket puts him at 98 percent. Lakshya argues that Georgia is simply not red enough, especially in a Democratic-leaning national environment, to justify treating Ossoff as vulnerable. Zach agrees Ossoff is favored, but his model is more cautious because it adjusts for the possibility that competitive states in 2024 were artificially bluer than their underlying partisanship.Other divergences tell us a lot about how forecasting works. In Michigan, Lakshya said he thinks VoteHub’s forecast is probably better than his own, because early polling suggests Democrats may not be as strong there as his fundamentals-heavy model currently implies. In Florida, Zach said Lakshya’s model may be capturing something VoteHub is not: the continued Republican strength among Florida’s older and Hispanic voters.That was the spirit of the whole conversation. Lakshya and Zach are not dueling forecasters, but friends with different ideas about what inputs to use in a model. And that may be the most useful takeaway. Forecasts are not magic. They are structured arguments about what matters, what data should count and how uncertain we should be.In 2026, those arguments point to a Democratic edge in the House, a highly competitive Senate and a midterm that could determine whether Trump spends the final two years of his presidency constrained by Congress or empowered by it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe | 1h 00m 50s | ||||||
| 6/10/26 | ![]() How Do Democrats Solve A Problem Like Graham Platner?✨ | Maine Senate racepolitical fallout+4 | Nate Silver | — | MaineIran | Maine Senate raceGraham Platner+5 | — | 13m 14s | |
| 6/8/26 | ![]() Why Right-Wing Populism Hasn’t Taken Off In Ireland✨ | right-wing populismIrish politics+4 | Hugh Linehan | The Irish TimesSinn Féin | IrelandUnited States+6 | populismIreland+6 | — | 1h 10m 45s | |
| 6/3/26 | ![]() Is Iowa The New Maine For Democrats?✨ | Iowa primariesDemocratic Senate race+3 | Mary RadcliffeJacob Rubashkin | — | IowaMaine+5 | IowaMaine+6 | — | 15m 52s | |
| 6/1/26 | ![]() Sexts, Autopsies, and Primary Chaos✨ | Senate campaignspolitical scandals+4 | Mary RadcliffeJacob Rubashkin | DNC | MaineTexas+2 | Graham PlatnerKen Paxton+5 | — | 1h 03m 02s | |
| 5/28/26 | ![]() The Dollar’s Strange, Fragile Power✨ | U.S. dollarFederal Reserve+4 | Brendan Greeley | The Almighty Dollar: 500 Years of the World’s Most Powerful Money | United StatesChina | U.S. dollarJerome Powell+5 | — | 16m 55s | |
| 5/25/26 | ![]() How Partisan Is The Supreme Court, Really?✨ | Supreme Courtpartisanship+3 | Sarah Isgur | GD POLITICSLast Branch Standing: A Potentially Surprising, Occasionally Witty Journey Inside Today’s Supreme Court | — | Supreme Courtpartisan+5 | — | 1h 01m 32s | |
| 5/21/26 | ![]() Trump, The Lame Duck With Teeth✨ | election updateprimaries+4 | Jacob Rubashkin | GD POLITICSSupreme Court | New JerseyTexas+4 | Trumpprimaries+8 | — | 16m 41s | |
| 5/18/26 | ![]() Trump Hits A New Low✨ | Trump approval ratingsRepublican primaries+3 | — | The New York TimesSiena | GeorgiaKentucky+1 | Trumpapproval ratings+6 | — | 53m 02s | |
| 5/14/26 | ![]() Live Show: Hot Takes, Warped Maps, and Nerd Trivia✨ | political analysisgerrymandering+4 | Nate SilverClare Malone | GD POLITICSComedy Cellar | U.K.Virginia | politicsgerrymandering+6 | — | 21m 39s | |
| 5/11/26 | ![]() Can Public Health Win Back The Public?✨ | public healthtrust in institutions+4 | Nate SilverClare Malone | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | New York City | public healthtrust+5 | — | 54m 41s | |
| 5/7/26 | ![]() How Prediction Markets Made The World A Casino✨ | prediction marketsbetting+3 | — | FiveThirtyEight PoliticsBetfair+3 | U.K.New Zealand+1 | prediction marketsBetfair+5 | — | 19m 39s | |
| 5/4/26 | ![]() The Senate Map Has A Maine Character✨ | Maine Senate raceDemocratic primary+4 | Nate SilverClare Malone+1 | NBC News | MaineNew York City+4 | MaineSenate map+6 | — | 49m 57s | |
| 4/30/26 | ![]() Where The Gerrymandering Fight Goes From Here✨ | gerrymanderingVoting Rights Act+4 | Nate SilverClare Malone+1 | Voting Rights Act | LouisianaComedy Cellar in New York City | gerrymanderingVoting Rights Act+5 | — | 34m 05s | |
| 4/27/26 | ![]() A Year Of Carney In The Age Of Trump✨ | Canadian politicsMark Carney+4 | Nate SilverClare Malone | Liberal PartyConservative Party+2 | CanadaNew York City | Mark CarneyLiberal Party+5 | — | 1h 05m 59s | |
| 4/23/26 | ![]() Hot Politicians, Deaths In Office, And The Nebraska Senate Race✨ | Virginia gerrymanderingCalifornia governor's race+4 | Mary Radcliffe | VirginiaDemocratic Party+3 | — | gerrymanderingVirginia+7 | — | 21m 16s | |
| 4/20/26 | ![]() The Gerrymandering Fight Comes To Virginia And Florida✨ | gerrymanderingVirginia elections+4 | Nate SilverClare Malone | Trump administrationRepublicans+3 | VirginiaFlorida | gerrymanderingVirginia+6 | — | 55m 38s | |
| 4/16/26 | ![]() AI Has Officially Entered Mainstream Politics✨ | artificial intelligencepolitics+4 | David Byler | Department of DefenseAnthropic+1 | New York City | AIpolitics+5 | — | 24m 21s | |
| 4/13/26 | ![]() What The Iran War Has Done To The Economy✨ | economyinflation+4 | Martha Gimbel | Budget LabTimes | United States | Iran Warinflation+5 | — | 51m 58s | |
| 4/9/26 | ![]() Trump Declares Victory. Voters Send A Different Message.✨ | election resultsTrump's statements+4 | — | Iran | GeorgiaWisconsin+2 | Trumpelection results+6 | — | 23m 45s | |
| 4/6/26 | ![]() How Low Is Trump's Approval Rating Floor?✨ | Trump's approval ratingpolitical analysis+3 | Nate Silver | Silver BulletinSubstack | — | Trumpapproval rating+5 | — | 23m 06s | |
| 4/2/26 | ![]() Can A Popular Prime Minister Fix What Ails Japan?✨ | Japanese politicsLiberal Democratic Party+4 | Kenneth Mori McElwain | Liberal Democratic Party | JapanUniversity of Tokyo | Japanpolitics+5 | — | 57m 23s | |
| 3/30/26 | ![]() Everything That Happened In The Last Two Weeks✨ | news cyclecurrent events+3 | Nathaniel RakichMary Radcliffe | — | Japan | newspolitics+6 | — | 52m 02s | |
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