Geography Matters

In this episode we discuss some aspects of how and why geography matters. If we go back a hundred years or so there was an intellectual argument about the extent to which geography determined the future of a country or a region. Those who argued that it did were 'geographical determinists'. A recent example of this is the fascinating 2022 book by Ian Morris entitled 'Geography is Destiny: Britain and the World, a 10,000 Year History'. Put simply, Morris argues that Britain's position as an island on the NW corner of Europe has played a defining role in shaping Britain's history: particularly its rise as a maritime power. More generally, geographical determinists argued that key aspects of physical geography: latitude, location, temperature, climate, soils, relief etc played a keys role in determining the economic development and history of different parts of the world. Europe developed early because a temperate climate and fertile soils permitted agricultural development etc. Clearly, physical geography does play an important role in shaping the development of different countries and regions. Antarctica has not, and is unlikely to ever, developed as a centre of agricultural production. Similarly with the Sahara, the Atacama and Nabian deserts. You will all be able to think of similar examples. But there is an important difference between geography determining the development of a country or region and geography influencing, constraining or encouraging development . Klaus and I both argue that geography influences rather than determines (except in very extreme cases). But, that said, it can have very major influences in some cases. In terms of resource development (copper, iron ore, rare earths, oil and gas etc), the development can only take place if the resources are there in the first place. They cannot be conjured up out of thin air. But equally just because a resource is there does not mean that it will be or can be developed. We will pick up this argument in some subsequent episodes

Global population changes are complex but it can be argued that many countries, but not all, fall into one of two groups, each with very different problems. First, there are the relatively poor, low income, developing countries with high birth rates and rapidly growing populations.Most sub Saharan African countries fall into this group. Second, there are richer, developed, countries with low birth rates and a generally slow growing, static or even falling population. Many European countries fall into this category and they face problems of shrinking labour force, an ageing population and growing welfare bills for pensions and health care. Not surprisingly there is a growing global trend for people to try to migrate from the first group to the second. Countries in the first group include Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and many other sub-Saharan countries. In many of the these countries over 50% of the population is aged 18 or under. By contrast, in Japan, the country with the oldest population in the world, some 30% of people are now aged 65 or over and many parts of rural Japan are now shrinking villages of the elderly. The birth rate in Japan is now far below replacement rate (2.1 children per woman) and the countries population is continuing to fall. Many European countries are not too far behind. Italy has 22% of its population over 65 and Finland, Greece, Portugal, Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, France all have over 20%. But one of the least well known but most remarkable countries is China. It currently has a population of 1.3 bn but this has now peaked and is starting to fall. And, as consequence of Mao's one child policy and the subsequent rapid economic growth, very few families have more than one child and China's population is forecast to almost half by the end of the century on current trends. The problem now facing many affluent developed western countries is the falling proportion of economically active people and a growing, ageing, dependant population of retired people. This poses problems both for the cost of care and the supply of care workers and for expenditure on pensions. Not surprisingly, many young people are trying to migrate from the first group of countries to the second, though both Japan and China have relatively little inward migration from overseas.

Geopolitics has a long history but it can be defined as how, where, when and why geographical factors, physical, economic and social influence the influence of political power, the shape of international relations and the strategic decision making of states and other entities, including both private companies and other non state actors. Where and when to invest is increasingly important globally and companies often want to ensure that investments are in relatively safe/politically stable areas. Geopolitics also involves decisions and conflicts over resources - gas, oil, copper, and recently rare earth minerals. The term geopolitics was first used in 1900 by Rudolf Kjellenn a Swedish political scientist but in 1904 Halford Mackinder, a British geographer, university professor and MP wrote an influential paper called 'The Geographical pivot of history' which argued that certain key areas of the world had been historically and politically important for many centuries. Although his choice of area can be queried 120 years later, his general thesis remains influential. Today, geopolitics is as important as ever and it is possible to look at many different parts of the world where there are conflicts between states over borders, oceans and territory. The podcast briefly discusses some of these, including the south China Sea, the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, American and Chinese spheres of influence and the conflicts in the middle east involving Israel, Gaza,Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and the Gulf states. Geopolitics is of growing importance.

This episode follows on from the previous one 'Where does our food come from?' This episode focuses more on food consumption but also touches on food production. Our starting point is the global food supply system from which most people in the developed world now get their food. The main distribution network are the supermarkets which all have integrated food supply chains. This means that whether we shop at Aldi, Lidl, Tesco, Sainsburys, Waitrose, or Asda (Walmart in the US or Carrefour in France, Denner or Migros in Switzerland) we are probably all going to get an all year round supply of fruit and vegetables coming from a wide range of places across the globe. Each of the supermarkets has a team of specialist buyers whose job is to ensure that we are able to get a year round supply of grapes for currently about £2 for half kilo. And a supply of frozen prawns from Thailand, Vietnam, or Honduras. But of course all of this requires long food supply chains, whether by truck within Europe or the USA ory ship or air. But these food production chains (particularly beef) generate considerable C02 as well as nitrogen fertilisers pollution. This raise big questions about the long term sustainability of such food systems. Meanwhile, in many less developed countries, food production causes problems of deforestation, soil erosion and is prone to drought, civil war and other problems. And within the developed countries there are sometimes political protests by farmers who feel they are being undercut, or by concerned citizens who object to some intensive food production processes - chlorinated chicken or hormone feed beef for example. Currently Britain only produces about 54% of the food that we consume which raises questions about food security in the event of any global conflicts if we were forced back just on national food production. .

The recent election of Pope Leo, an American, who had worked most of his life in Peru, replacing Pope Benedict from Argentina, raised debates about whether the new Pope might be from black Africa or South East Asia. It hightlighted the geography of religions. There are an estimated 5.5 billion people in the world with religious beliefs: the three biggest being Christianity, Islam and Hinduism. But these religions, and their believers,. have geographies - internationally, between countries, intra-nationally - within countries, and regionally and locally. Internationally, Christianity is important in Europe, but also in most of Latin America and Phillippines as a result of Spanish and Portugese colonialism. It is also important in USA. Hinduism is largely concentrated in India, but Islam is important not just in the Middle East but in South East Asia in Indonesia and Malaysia. There is a history of religious segregation and conflict. We can see this in Northern Ireland, in India and recently in Myanmar where the Rohinga's have been violently pushed out into Bangladesh. Conflict in Israel and Palestine is also a major issue. There are also geographies of religious sites and pilgrimages, Jerusalem is a classic example but there is Mecca and Medina and other important ones in India. In Britain there has been growth of new Moslem mosques and Hindu temples and of religious schools. The geography of religion is an important issue.

Whatever the arguments about causes, there is no doubt that the world has been getting considerably warmer over the last 50 years and much warmer over the last 20 years. Mean average global temperature has risen by 1.4 degree C over the last 100 years and it has now speeded up and almost all the hottest years in the last 100 years have been in the last 20 years. Mean annual temperatures are now increasing by 0.2C per decade. Recent years have seen rising temperatures in many parts of the world and some places are now becoming almost uninhabitable. But the increase in temperatures has not been geographically even and nor have its effects. The polar regions have been warming much faster than other areas, and as snow and ice cover shrinks so does the ability to reflect sunlight. The permafrost areas of northern Russia and Canada are beginning to thaw. Europe and the Middle East have also warmed fast and some parts of the world are now becoming uninhabitable. This has major consequences in terms of agriculture, social breakdown and mass migration. Global warming also generates warmer oceans and rising sea levels. We are seeing the effects of this in the increase in the number of major hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic hitting the East coast of north America and then Western Europe with consequent flooding. But the real risks are in areas like the Bay of Bengal where tropical cyclones generate massive flooding in low lying Bangladesh. Some Pacific island states are also under considerable threat from rising sea levels as are big cities like London, New York and Shanghai. The costs of global warming are unequally distributed and are being felt most strongly in many of the world's poorer areas like the Sahel belt of Africa where more frequent droughts are displacing millions of people. This is generating arguments for international climate justice.

European empires have a long history and can be traced back to the late C15th when Spanish and Portugese explorers were pushing further and further south down the west coast of Africa. Eventually in 1492 Columbus discovered the New world and the scene was set for Spain and Portugal to divide it up between them. But around the same time Cabot navigated to Newfoundland (the name gives it away) and Labrador. Some time later the Puritans established the first English settlements in Virginia. Then the growing Dutch trading empire began to expand to the East Indies and the scene was set. Subsequently other European powers, first the British and the French, but subsequently the Germans, Italians and Portugese began to establish colonies in Africa. In the 1870s 10% of Africa had been colonized by European powers. By 1914 it reached almost 90% with Belgium taking what came the Belgium Congo. So, right from the start, the growth of European empires was very much a geographical project and geography played a major part in the pattern of colonization with settlers pushing inland in different directions from the north, south, east and west of Africa. But empires rise and fall, grow and contract and the post war period was the era of European decolonization. This episode looks at some of these complex issues.

Most developed western countries have got some form of welfare state or welfare support for their population. These started in some countries in a rudimentary way in the late 19th century or the interwar years, but most countries saw rapid development in the years after WWII. This was when Britain saw the start of National Insurance, the NHS, free secondary school and university education etc. But all this costs a lot of money and western countries tend to spend a lot of money on welfare provision. In Britain its about 10% of GDP and 24% of government spending. State pensions alone cost about £155 bn a year. What is interesting for us is that welfare needs and expenditure tend of have distinct geographies, both internationally and regionally. Internationally there are big variations between the social democratic, Nordic countries which tend to have generous and expensive welfare states which also require high levels of taxation, and 'liberal' countries like the USA which have more rudimentary forms of support, with correspondingly lower taxes. In the middle are France, Germany and the Netherlands which have extensive welfare states. Many of the less developed countries have minimal or non existent welfare programmes. Within countries, there is often considerable variation in both need and expenditure. In Britain, there are distinct regional variations between the more affluent south east and the less prosperous regions of South Wales, the North, North East which all saw large scale de-industrialisation and collapse of employment in coal mining, ship building, textiles, etc. As a result these areas have higher levels of unemployment, sickness and disability with higher levels of benefit expenditure. These patterns are repeated in other western countries which have seen de-industrialisation and in these areas welfare benefits are an important form of income support.