Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

In Episode 79, Frank welcomes back his friend and colleague Chris Krueger, Head of Global Macro Research for TD Securities and an expert on Washington politics, to discuss the upcoming US Midterm elections in November. Before digging in on US politics, Frank and Chris work through some recent developments around the globe including the Iran Peace Deal, the Trump-Meloni dispute and Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister of the UK. When the conversation switches to mid-terms, Chris educates our listeners on the math to control the House and Senate and suggests that the next leader of the Democratic Party is likely to emerge from state legislatures rather than chambers of government in Washington. Frank handicaps the Rubio-Vance sweepstakes for next Republican leader and believes that other horses will participate in the leadership race as well. The two finish up discussing the dispute over the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, IEEPA refunds and expectations for CUSMA negotiations. This podcast was recorded on June 22, 2026 Chapter Headings 01:15 - The Iran Peace Deal 07:21 - Starmer Quits 15:40 - The Math for House and Senate 22:19 - Leading Candidates for Democrats 24:54 - Rubio vs Vance 28:04 - Dispute over Gordie Howe Bridge 32:04 - New US Tariffs Arrive as IEEPA Refunds Start 34:47 - Expectations for CUSMA

For the first time in four months of our podcast series, the focus of Frank's attention is not centered around tariffs. This month Frank starts with a detailed analysis of Prime Minister Carney's cabinet, a carefully constructed team of ministers balancing geographic, gender and ethnic interests from across the country. Frank addresses comments from Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith on separation, suggesting she would be better off leading than following her base of support. On a positive note, Smith seemed more bullish on the prospects for energy infrastructure builds across the country following comments from Quebec Premier Legault, who previously did not support building pipelines through his province. Frank discussed Prime Minister Carney's visit to the Whitehouse where he received good marks for his messaging on Canada's sovereignty which did not require confrontation with the President. We then move the discussion to global issues, covering handshake trade deals, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, which Frank suggests are closer to the end than the beginning, and the recent flare up between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. He finishes with a suggestion that the Jays are better than their record, a point of view that was not supported by the normally bullish podcast host. This podcast was recorded on May 21, 2025. Chapter Headings: 01:28 - The Carney Cabinet 06:21 - Smith and Alberta Separation 12:50 - Spending on Energy Infrastructure 21:53 - Bullish Tone for Canada 28:50 - Carney and Trump 34:36 - Trump and Tariffs 40:30 - Is Trump's Nobel Prize Slipping Away? 43:31 - India-Pakistan Flare Up

In Episode 63, the focus of discussions in on two main topics: new Prime Minister Mark Carney's early days at the helm of Canada, and tariffs. Frank discusses Carney's decision to travel to Europe before the US, a move that was criticized by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and the significant downsizing of the new Liberal cabinet, a move that was sure to hurt some feelings inside the caucus. Frank provides the pros and cons of choosing Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to represent Canada in negotiations with President Trump, and he debunks the recent claims by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Carney didn’t deserve credit for Canada's response to the GFC. In the tariff discussion, Frank dismisses Trump's repeated exaggerations about trade deficits equaling some sort of subsidy provided to Canada from the US. Frank counters that the existing trade deficit is not a subsidy that costs the United States jobs, instead it is a function of our abundance of raw material inputs that the United States imports from Canada. Frank also lays to rest any notion that Canada's dairy sector is not open for business with US suppliers; in fact, the US has yet to use up more than ½ of its dairy quotas with Canada since the 2018 CUSMA agreement set new free trade supply limits. Frank finishes with some ideas for Canada's government to meet its NATO spending commitments, and his belief in the need to keep momentum moving forward with respect to the elimination of intra-provincial trade barriers. This podcast was recorded on March 17, 2025. Chapter Headings 00:25 - Friendship Day in Colorado 03:44 - Carney's Cabinet and First Trip to Europe 09:02 - Carney or Poilievre – Who is Best Positioned to Negotiate with Trump? 14:28 - Carney on Taxes 16:41 - Harper on Carney's Contribution to Canada's GFC Response 19:03 - Two East Coast Premiers Retire – is this Coincidence? 21:12 - Trump's Exaggerations Used to Justify Tariffs on Canada 28:38 - Meeting NATO Defense Spending Target 36:24 - Understanding Dairy Quotas – Not Just a Canada Issue 48:08 - Is Momentum for Removing Intra-Provincial Trade Barriers Sustainable? 50:25 - Caught in the Blue Jays Vortex…Again

Episode 61 is a deep dive into Canadian politics. Frank starts by handicapping the Liberal leadership race to elect Canada's next Prime Minister, a leader whose first order of business will be filling the leadership vacuum in Ottawa as Canada fights back against tariff threats from President Trump. He reminds Canada's provincial leaders of the importance of putting aside regional differences in favor of a Team Canada approach. Frank takes listeners back to Economics 101 where he discusses the theory of comparative advantage, while suggesting that businesses on both sides of the border are holding back investment while the period of tariff uncertainty continues. He addresses the trolling by President Trump of Canada and makes a passionate plea to Americans to understand that while we are friends, we want to remain Canadian. The conversation then moves to global affairs where we discuss the Israel-Hamas peace agreement, the likely end of the Ukraine War and other potential hot spots for geopolitics, including one that is surprisingly close to home. This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2025. Chapter Headings 00:50 - The Race to be Canada's Prime Minister 06:24 - Trump Tariff Decision on Hold 10:20 - Leadership Vacuum in Ottawa 11:50 - Economics 101 – Tariffs and Comparative Advantage 14:45 - Canada's Response to the Wildfires in LA 18:12 - Governor Trudeau and Manifest Destiny 23:06 - Justin Trudeau's Legacy and Biggest Regret 26:50 - Identity Politics 30:40 - Predicting the Election Outcome 32:35 - Does the Israel-Hamas Peace Agreement Have Legs? 36:30 - The Trump Oligarchy 37:40 - Zelensky's Dealmaking with Trump 39:42 - Other Potential Geopolitical Hot Spots in 2025

Frank is back from a vacation in the Far East, and he is fired up to talk about the US Election and its implications for global geopolitics. We cover Trump's controversial cabinet picks. Frank is supportive of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Rubio will have his hands full with very active global hot spots in Russia, China, and the Middle East. The conversation ends with the new US Administration's implications on Canada, including whether Canada and the USMCA will be on the inside or outside of Trump's proposed tariff wall, and timing for a Canadian election. This podcast was recorded on November 21, 2024. Chapter Headings 1:00 – Frank's Unique Take on the Election Result 5:07 - Handicapping Complex Senate Confirmations 12:16 - Elon Musk's New Role Running DOGE, the Department not the Coin 17:52 – Comparing Cabinet Appointment Process in US vs Parliamentary System 20:07 – Are We Nearing the End Game in Russia? 28:16 - The Future of USMCA and Relationship with Mexico 31:47 - The Latest on Timing for a Canadian Election

In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, TD Cowen's Washington politics expert, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th US Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race. Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word (and there is no reason to doubt him), then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-US relations for the duration of the next Administration. We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast. Chapter Headings: 0:55 - Is the US Election the Most Consequential in History? 2:11 - Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome 8:58 - USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration 14:07 - Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute? 16:50 - Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power 27:02 - Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling 33:19 - Placing Bets on the Winner 36:28 - Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election

In Episode 55, Frank discusses Ukrainian tactics in its war with Russia, suggesting that the incursion into Russian territory and recent drone attacks are more than just bargaining chips. Crossing back to North America, we discuss the on-going love in with the Harris-Walz ticket, and the importance of Trump vs Harris on September 10. Frank downplays the significance of an RFK Jr defection to Trump's camp as it remains unclear whether the existence of RFK Jr as a third-party candidate helps or hurts the Republicans. Before we finish with our proverbial critique of the Jays, Frank offers his thoughts on the importance of public-private partnerships in fixing Canada's aging infrastructure. Chapter Headings 05:22 - Ukraine's Aggressive Move into Russia 11:14 - Democrats Control the News Cycle 18:24 - Is RFK Important to Trump? 23:57 - Trudeau's Calculus 28:20 - How to Fix Canada's Aging Infrastructure This podcast was recorded on August 21, 2024