Good Authority

After declaring martial law in December, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has faced impeachment, arrest, and detention on charges of inciting insurrection. Jean Hong, a professor at the University of Michigan who specializes in the political economy of authoritarianism in East Asia, analyzes the implications for democratic consolidation. She discusses public opinion and the emergence of the far right, along with how legal proceedings are likely to evolve.

Despite promising to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement, many governments maintain low gasoline taxes or even allow citizens to buy gasoline below market prices. UCLA professor Michael Ross explains why it has proven to be so hard to move away from gasoline subsidies and, more generally, why price-based fossil fuel policies are often politically unsustainable.

Martha Finnemore, recent winner of the Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science, discusses the critical role of norms in international affairs. She explains how norms develop, what they are and are not, and how they shape international relations. She also highlights how norms influence current issues such as cybersecurity and artificial intelligence.

The first presidential debate takes place tonight. As you probably know by now, Biden and Trump agreed to this June 27 debate and a second one on September 10. They are not going to do the usual three debates overseen by the Commission on Presidential Debates in late September and early October. Of course, the big question is: In a year of remarkably stable polling, could this debate actually change the state of the race? This is a more complicated question to answer than usual – and we can blame this new debate schedule. What the previous research says In August 2012, I wrote a piece summarizing the political science literature on the presidential debates from 1960-2008. Here’s a one-sentence summary: Debates have moved the polls but they have rarely decided the election. There are two big reasons why. First, the debates took place later in the election season and there weren’t many undecided voters at that point. Second, it has proven tough to “run the table” and win all the debates so convincingly that the winner received a durable benefit. Typically, the candidates have fought to a draw. By contrast, the party conventions have had larger effects, on average. They have typically occurred earlier than the debates. And because the conventions no longer experience much drama about who’ll be the nominee, they have become infomercials for that candidate. By design, no debate tends to be that one-sided. Not much about the 2012 debates changed those conclusions, I argued after that election. Mitt Romney did gain a few points after the first debate, but Barack Obama did better in the last two and the end result was basically a wash. There weren’t big debate effects in 2016 or 2020 either, or so we found in our books on those elections. What’s unusual in 2024 But this year’s schedule creates the potential for something different. For one, the first debate will take place quite early. There should be more undecided voters than there will be in October. And we know that Joe Biden has work to do rallying Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. If Biden “wins” the debate – I use scare quotes because these judgments are always subjective – it could boost his standing within the party even before the Democratic convention. Then there is the Republican convention from July 15-18 and the Democratic convention from August 19-22. This will allow us to observe the potential impact of each. In some years, like 2020, the party conventions are so close together that you can barely see any impact of the first before the second one kicks in. But note also that party conventions have had smaller effects in recent elections. The second debate on September 10 will also take place earlier than the first debate typically has. So, once again, there could be potential for the polls to move. Moreover, convention bumps sometimes decay and either candidate could benefit from a highly publicized victory in the September debate. But then… there will be almost 2 months until Election Day. That’s plenty of time for any impact of the final debate to disappear, or another late-breaking event to override the debate’s impact. It’s also worth noting that Biden has already reserved more time for televised advertising in the fall than Trump has. If those ads have an effect – and there is evidence that advertising can have a small effect – then that could be the ultimate deciding factor in a very close election, not a debate that occurred weeks or months earlier. In sum, for a long time the presidential campaign calendar followed a pattern: summer party conventions followed by fall debates. That’s what the political science research has studied. In 2024, we’ll get to study something different – with less predictable consequences. For further discussion on the 2024 debates, listen to my conversation with Good Authority Editor Erik Voeten.

John Sides and Michael Tesler recently published a piece on Good Authority asking how much trouble Joe Biden is really in for the 2024 election? Our podcast episode kicks off with that big question, then delves deeper into what opinion polls in March can tell us about the November elections. We talk about how much it matters that both candidates are pretty well known, whether the encouraging news on the economy can help Biden, and whether Democrats’ strong performance in the 2022 and 2023 elections gives the party some hope. We also explore some currents underlying recent trends in public opinion. Is there really a looming racial realignment in American politics? Why don’t consumer sentiment and presidential approval ratings go hand in hand anymore? Is there any change in political independents? What types of issues might favor Democrats and Republicans? And what are good campaign strategies for both sides? John has written books about the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections. Michael was a co-author on the 2016 book and has also written extensively about elections at 538, the Monkey Cage and elsewhere. Listen for a deep dive on what to expect over the next few months. Hear our conversation using the audio player below. You can also subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.

The well-documented rise in right-wing populism has spawned no end of explanations. Are voters' preferences shifting? Do populist candidates capitalize and build on existing sentiments? This reading of an article by John Sides explores the recent paper by political scientists Oren Danieli, Noam Gidron, Shinnosuke Kikuchi, and Ro’ee Levy, which presents an interesting new angle on why populist parties across Europe have experienced a surge in electoral support.

The World Bank estimates many low- and middle-income countries are at high risk of debt distress. Should they cut spending, which may increase poverty and create social unrest? Should they default on their debts, which will make it harder to access credit markets in the future? Good Authority editor Erik Voeten speaks with Princeton Professor Layna Mosley, an expert on the politics of sovereign debt, to answer these questions and more.