Independent Thinking

President Trump and President Putin's back-door deal to release hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Russian diesel into international markets has revitalized the Kremlin's war effort and left President Zelenskyy incandescent. Is the US president sacrificing Ukraine in the hope that it will help him in the midterms? Can Europe bridge the gap in support? And can Ukraine survive another winter under Russian attack? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme and head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House; General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of the Joint Forces Command in the UK Armed Forces and a senior consulting fellow with our International Security Programme; and Sharon Hudson-Dean, associate fellow with Chatham House's US and North America Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Comment | After Trump's Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs? Comment | Why the US midterms are a rare foreign policy election Research paper | Why a 'whole-of-society' model is essential for Ukraine's recovery Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Academic Journal | International Affairs Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels' capture of Yemen's port city of Mocha means that Iran now effectively controls two crucial waterways in the region – the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal, as well as the Hormuz Strait. Why has this simmering conflict exploded again? What do Iran and the Houthis want? How serious is this potential blockade for world trade and energy supply? And could the Houthis become a regional power, in economic terms even more powerful than Iran? Bronwen Maddox is joined by director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, Dr Sanam Vakil; Horn of Africa specialist Ahmed Soliman; and Yemen and Gulf specialist, Farea Al-Muslimi, who joins us from Jordan. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Comment | New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain Magazine article | Farea al-Muslimi: 'I wrote my own death statement 5 times' Comment | Escaping the Hormuz trap: What should an agreement to reopen the Strait look like? Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

A call by leaders of the tech giants on the frontier of Artificial Intelligence to 'slow the pace' of its development has sparked debate over the risks associated with AI. Does AI represent an existential threat, and if so, how urgent are the warnings? Or can humanity harness this powerful technology to our benefit? Our experts discuss the implications for international security, from cyber to the increasing use of AI in today's conflict zones, and the dynamics of the race toward the cutting edge – not only among industry competitors, but also in the realm of geopolitics. Bronwen Maddox is joined by Dr Marion Messmer, director of our International Security Programme, and Alex Krasodomski, director of our Digital Society Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: Magazine article | UK's armed forces can keep control of their AI kill switch – here's how Magazine article | 'We are at a moment of peril with AI ... The sooner [it is regulated], the better' Policy paper | How AI could change the world Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The United Nations convenes for its 81st General Assembly next week amid turmoil around the world that it seeks to bring together. The conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, and the US, China and Russia's undermining of the rules-based international order cast a shadow over UNGA. Can the organization renew itself for a dangerous multipolar world? Or is it doomed to the same fate as the League of Nations? Bronwen Maddox discusses the UN's present and future with Heather Hurlburt, associate fellow with our US and North America Programme; Marc Weller, head of our Global Governance and Security Centre; and Zizette Darkazally, associate fellow with our Middle East and North Africa Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: Research paper| What Haitians want from the next phase of UN and international support Comment | Can the UN close the global AI gap? Policy paper | What the Burnham government should do in its foreign policy Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The climate crisis has seldom been dramatized so vividly as in the summer of 2026. Apocalyptic fires, widespread droughts and drained rivers in Europe made clear a worsening situation that even the most fervent denier can't wave away. But is there the necessary time, commitment and technology to slow or reverse the climate spiral – even in the face of a US administration that is committed to fossil fuels? How do the two approaches of mitigation and adaptation translate into real life on the ground? And is there any good news amid the smoke and gloom? Bronwen Maddox is joined by water and climate specialist Dr Beatrice Mosello and sustainability expert Dr Patrick Schröder from Chatham House, and special guest Oliver Morton, The Economist's planetary affairs correspondent. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest work: Comment | Wildfires and extreme heat show climate change is now Europe's biggest security threat Video | Burning questions facing Burnham Comment | Melting ice and power shifts: Europe and Canada should seize their Arctic moment Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Audio | The Climate Briefing Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The $2.6 trillion spent on artificial intelligence, data centres and advanced chipmaking dwarfs the cost of previous infrastructure megaprojects. Yet AI has become a money pit for tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, and the tech is failing to hit its stratospheric targets. Could an AI crash take overinvested economies down with it? In the longer term, whose approach will dominate? Will it be the US's private-led model with tech giants at the top? Or China's tactic of spreading low-cost AI throughout the Global South, with an eye on dominating the future? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Alex Krasodomski, director of Chatham House's Digital Society Programme; James Kynge, a senior research fellow for China and the World with the Asia-Pacific Programme; and Creon Butler, director of the Global Economy and Finance Programme. Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | What the UK should learn from Kimi K3, WAICO and the Hugging Face incident Comment | What the UK government should do on AI and tech policy Research paper | Breaking the deadlock on AI governance Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

Andy Burnham took over as UK prime minister with a vow to restore hope in British politics – and an early volley of voter-friendly policy promises. But are they quite as significant as billed? How much room to manoeuvre does Burnham really have? Will new chancellor John Healey release enough funds to the Ministry of Defence, which he quit in frustration? Does Ed Miliband have what it takes to succeed as foreign secretary? And how will Britain's place in the world change? Olivia O'Sullivan, director of Chatham House's UK in the World Programme, is joined by The Economist's political correspondent Hugo Gye and Chatham House associate fellow Jamie Gaskarth to discuss the first days of Burnham's premiership. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | How Burnham should engage with Africa Comment | The wishful thinking behind the war with Iran Comment | 'Structural divergence' in China's economy exposes a growing problem Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

This year's NATO summit brought together the leaders of all 32 member states in Ankara. President Donald Trump's return to the summit brought renewed controversy, with remarks on Greenland and Iran underscoring the geopolitical tensions that continue to test the unity and purpose of the transatlantic alliance. What happened in Ankara and what does it mean for NATO's future? If the Ukraine conflict winds down, will Russia pivot to test Article Five? And is Britain doing enough to prepare for a potential conflict? Bronwen Maddox looks at the summit and NATO's future with special guest General Sir Richard Barrons – former Commander of Joint Forces Command in the UK, now a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House – plus Dr Marion Messmer, director of our International Security Programme, and Galip Dalay who runs Chatham House's Turkey Initiative. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Explore Chatham House's latest: News release | European NATO has four years to re-establish 'escalation dominance' over Russia, conference hears Magazine article | Yvette Cooper on Britain's place in the new world order Comment | Will NATO be convinced by the UK Defence Investment Plan? Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧 Audio | Africa Aware🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves No.10 a decade since the Brexit referendum that began the UK's cycle of chaos, and Andy Burnham seems set to take over unopposed. Our experts discuss what the new regime will mean for Britain's future and its role in the world. Will attempts to bring the UK closer to Europe without actually rejoining the EU continue? Will Burnham want to increase Britain's defence budget, or will his priorities lie elsewhere? And why can't Britain hold on to its prime ministers? Bronwen Maddox reflects on a historic week with Ben Judah, former adviser to David Lammy and visiting fellow at Chatham House, and Olivia O'Sullivan, director of our UK in the World Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Explore Chatham House's latest: Comment | Britain's next prime minister faces deep foreign policy challenges – whether Burnham or another Comment | Macron's Evian summit shows the limits Trump places on the G7 Research paper | Three foreign policy priorities for the next UK government Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

A tumultuous week for Britain's faltering rearmament plans sees Defence Secretary John Healey resign from Keir Starmer's cabinet, saying the prime minister and the Treasury lack the will to properly fund the defence of the nation. Al Carns, the armed forces minister, also resigned saying the government's long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) was 'not built for the threat we face'. The departures raise further questions over whether the DIP can address the costs and trade-offs involved in strengthening UK defence. Meanwhile, European leaders struggle to coordinate their own rearmament amid concerns that America will withdraw from the defence of the continent. Bronwen Maddox looks at the defence predicament in the UK and Europe, with UK in the World Programme director Olivia O'Sullivan, and International Security Programme director Marion Messmer. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House. Read Chatham House's latest: Comment | The FCAS fighter jet looks like it's dead. Could that be a good thing? Comment | Will the UK's Defence Investment Plan finally be honest about Britain's defence? Comment | John Healey's resignation highlights profound strategic failure in the UK government's approach to defence Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

The major Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo's northeast is not just a public health emergency in an already impoverished and violence-beset region. Armed rebellion, fragile government and a collapse in public trust are combining to make outbreaks more frequent – and fostering dangerous disinformation that makes the virus harder to fight. How dangerous is the Ebola virus? Could it spread to the rest of the world? And is America's withdrawal from global health leadership at least partly to blame for its return? Bronwen Maddox finds out from director of our Africa Programme Tighisti Amare, and director of our Global Health Programme Emma Ross. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House. Read Chatham House's latest: Comment | The flow of arms and money feeding the war in Sudan can be cut. What is missing is the will Upcoming event | Targeting medics on the battlefield: addressing the crisis through law and practice Comment | Ethiopia needs more than an election to calm internal and regional conflict Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.

President Donald Trump brings a band of senior US business executives seeking trade deals to China for what is possibly the biggest bilateral summit of 2026. But what does the US hope to achieve? More sales of Boeings, beef and soybeans; an off-ramp from the US-Israel war on Iran; a sense of world pre-eminence; or all three? Our experts discuss whether Taiwan will end up paying the price for Chinese help in ending the Iran war, and whether the success of the summit really boils down to the chemistry between Trump and the world's other most powerful man, Xi Jinping. Host Bronwen Maddox discusses the visit and what it means with Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow with our Asia-Pacific Programme, and Laurel Rapp, director of our US and North America Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell. Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump–Xi summit will be about managing US–China rivalry, not resolving it Comment | Rare earths are on Trump's agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home Comment | Xi and Trump won't discuss China's growing nuclear arsenal Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Audio | Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

King Charles III's state visit to the US won acclaim as the monarch charmed President Donald Trump. But can it really rescue US-UK relations from their current dire state? The 'special relationship' – a term first voiced by Chatham House before becoming widely popularized by Winston Churchill – now seems not so special. Our experts discuss what Britain and Europe should do now that the US wants to bear less of the burden of European defence, whether Prime Minister Starmer is right to stand up to President Trump on Iran, and where all of this leaves the NATO alliance. On this week's panel, host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme at Chatham House. And by General Sir Richard Barrons, a former Commander Joint Forces Command who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and was one of the leaders of the UK's Strategic Defence Review 2025. He is now a senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme. Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell. Read Chatham House's latest: AI export controls are not the best bargaining chip Mali attacks show security cannot be delivered by military means alone Norway can teach the UK about energy security – but the lesson is not more North Sea drilling Follow Independent Thinking on your favourite podcast apps.