Inevitable & Obvious

Iceland is the first country to formally declare a potential AMOC collapse a national security threat. Páll Gunnarsson, founder of the Reykjavík Institute, has been close to the political process that produced that declaration. He explains why a country of 400,000 people moved faster than larger Atlantic-rim nations, what made the declaration possible, and why he believes intervention capability research has to advance in parallel with climate science rather than after it. We also dig into his case against the standard moral hazard argument (the idea that climate interventions undermine decarbonization ambition) which he reframes as enforced vulnerability, the position of telling the most vulnerable people in the world to remain vulnerable so that wealthier societies feel pressure to act. And we talk about what comes next: a September pledging event in the EU around the OceanEye initiative, an emerging coalition-of-the-willing approach to research governance, and what happened the first time Reykjavík civil society sat down to discuss climate interventions in public.Subscribe for free and get more detailed show notes at inevitableandobvious.com Get full access to Inevitable & Obvious at www.inevitableandobvious.com/subscribe

Luke Iseman is putting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere with high-altitude balloons and selling cooling credits to pay for it. And he doesn’t care if you approve.Make Sunsets is maybe the most polarizing company in climate interventions right now, and I wanted to have Luke on the show so we could learn more about how they think and what their goals are. We discussed the question that if we assuming cooling the planet is necessary (and we both believe it is), does that justify acting without institutional permission? We get into the energy math on carbon removal, the governance question, and a wealthy customer who may be planning to personally fund enough deployment to measurably cool the planet. Chapter Timestamps* 01:22 — What Make Sunsets actually does and how cooling credits work* 05:07 — The energy math against carbon removal: why CDR needs 20x global energy production* 07:00 — Luke’s vision for 2100: nuclear energy, 10x global prosperity, and table stakes* 10:50 — “We’ve been geoengineering since the industrial revolution”* 15:11 — Theory of change, the wealthy customer revelation, and “are you going to stop me?”* 19:40 — Deployment risks: monsoon disruption, weaponization, and the Pentagon’s response* 25:27 — Luke’s critique of governance approaches being taken today* 30:29 — The smallpox analogy: does innovation precede or follow institutions?* 38:36 — What success looks like for Make Sunsets in 10 years (0.1°C measurable cooling)* 47:39 — The Mexico ban that wasn’t, and why getting the facts right matters* 53:19 — What the field needs: “bold action” vs. “analysis and meetings”* 55:07 — Paul’s post-interview reflection: where he agrees and where he doesn’tNotable Quotes* “Are you going to stop me? And unless someone is going to do that... the cat’s out of the bag. Anyone can do this.” — Luke Iseman* “Unless you are breaking the law to build nuclear reactors, I don’t want to hear about CDR from anyone proposing it as a serious climate solution.” — Luke Iseman* “People are obsessed with developing governance for something for which there’s no demand. You govern things for which there is demand.” — Luke Iseman, quoting a friend* “I have a lot more respect now for the institutions that govern things that can help make decisions, the social license and legitimacy that comes from working through much more traditional systems.” — Paul Gambill (post-interview)* “Every day that we wait to do solar geoengineering is needless lives lost, species extincted, and tipping points flirted with.” — Luke IsemanLinks and Resources* Make Sunsets: Luke’s company, where you can buy cooling credits* Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson: the novel that inspired Luke to start Make Sunsets* “Why Countries Aren’t Ready for Climate Interventions Yet” (Inevitable & Obvious)This and every episode I publish is free because I want these conversations to reach as many people as possible. Paid subscriptions are how I keep doing this work independently. They allow me to follow the research on climate interventions and meet the researchers, practitioners, founders, and policymakers shaping how this landscape evolves. Paid members get access to our community chat, where we discuss the latest developments in climate interventions and make sense of them together. If you found this conversation valuable, I’d appreciate your support. Get full access to Inevitable & Obvious at www.inevitableandobvious.com/subscribe