Reasonable Hope Philosophy - Early Preview of Day 1

Reasonable Hope Philosophy - Early Preview of Day 1

From Intersecting Us by Dave Kester & Brian Rihner

March 12, 2026 · 3 min · Season 1 · Episode 34

About this episode

Brian explores the concepts of certainty and confidence in decision making, drawing from actuarial science.

How certain do you need to be before you act? In this opening episode of Reasonable Hope , Brian reflects on a lesson from actuarial science: life rarely operates in absolutes. While mathematics often deals in certainty—0 or 1—our daily decisions live somewhere in between. Drawing from his years as an actuary, Brian explores the difference between certainty and confidence . Certainty is a psychological feeling of safety. Confidence, however, comes from the Latin com fide —“with faith.” Engineers design bridges they are confident will stand, even though they can never guarantee 100% certainty. In the same way, faith may not require perfect certainty before we move forward. What if commitment doesn’t require 100% certainty? What if 51% is enough? Soul Question: What is something you’ve been holding back on because you’re waiting for complete certainty? Could you act on the 51% today?

People in this episode

Host: Brian

Topics covered

  • certainty
  • confidence
  • faith
  • decision making
  • actuarial science

Keywords

  • certainty
  • confidence
  • faith
  • decision making
  • actuarial science
  • psychological safety
  • commitment

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: actuarial science, Latin

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