Iron Horse Energy Daily Brief

This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Thursday, November 13, 2025.Here's what moved overnight, and what it means for your capital.WTI crude fell to $58.39 per barrel, down 4.34 percent. Brent crude dropped to $62.64 per barrel, down 3.87 percent. Natural gas held at $4.55 per MMBtu, down slightly but still elevated year-over-year.The sell-off intensified after OPEC reversed its third-quarter forecast. The group now estimates a 500,000 barrel per day surplus, a complete reversal from its prior 400,000 barrel per day deficit forecast. U.S. crude production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. OPEC+ announced it will pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026.Today, the market is watching two key data releases: the Consumer Price Index and EIA crude oil inventory data. The CPI will provide insight into inflation trends that could impact Federal Reserve policy. EIA inventories are forecast to rise by 1 million barrels, following last week's 5.2 million barrel build.The headlines are screaming oversupply. OPEC sees a surplus. U.S. production is at record highs. The dollar is strong, pressuring commodity prices.But here's what the herd is missing.The IEA just reversed its peak oil demand thesis. In its World Energy Outlook published this week, the agency now projects global oil and gas demand will continue rising through 2050. That's a complete reversal from its previous forecast of peak demand before the end of this decade.China is still fast-tracking 169 million barrels of new strategic storage capacity by 2026. They're stockpiling at cycle lows, not dumping demand.On natural gas, LNG exports are averaging 17.8 billion cubic feet per day in November, near record levels. New LNG projects are adding 300 billion cubic meters of annual export capacity by 2030, a 50 percent increase. The EIA expects natural gas to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, up 16 percent year-over-year.Geopolitically, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft are creating long-term supply risks. Lukoil declared force majeure on shipments from Iraq. The market is pricing in oversupply today, but geopolitical risk is building beneath the surface.The read: WTI at $58.39. Brent at $62.64. OPEC reversed its forecast to a 500,000 barrel per day surplus. U.S. production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. But the IEA just reversed its peak demand thesis, now projecting demand rising through 2050. China is adding 169 million barrels of storage capacity and stockpiling at these prices. Natural gas LNG exports are hitting record levels, with 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity coming online by 2030. The EIA expects natural gas prices up 16 percent in 2026.The herd sees $58 WTI and panics. Sophisticated investors see China building reserves at cycle lows, the IEA reversing its demand outlook, and structural natural gas demand accelerating.The move: Most investors wait for confirmation. They want $70 oil and bullish headlines before they feel safe. But by the time the market breaks out, entry prices are higher, acreage is more expensive, and the asymmetric opportunity is gone.If you're positioning for 2025 tax elimination and monthly cash flow, this is your window. Visit JoinIronHorse.com.That's your brief for Thursday, November 13th. Let's keep building.KEYWORDS: oil and gas investing, tax deductions, WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, working interests, monthly cash flow, OPEC surplus, IEA demand forecast, China strategic reserves, LNG exports, Permian Basin, Iron Horse Energy Fund, geopolitical risk, energy investing© 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund

WTI crude at $60.57 (third straight monthly decline), natural gas up 52.50% YoY to $4.06/MMBtu, and Permian rig count down 50 rigs YTD to 250 (lowest since Oct 2021). The market screams oversupply—IEA forecasting 4 million bpd surplus in 2026, OPEC+ adding 137,000 bpd in December. But smart money watches rig counts and production economics. Permian production growth slowing 25% (250K-300K bpd vs. 380K bpd last year). US crude stocks fell 6.86 million barrels despite "oversupply." Tier-one operators crushing it: Enterprise Products hitting record natural gas processing (8.1 Bcf/d, +6% YoY). Natural gas up 52% YoY driven by structural LNG export demand to Europe and Asia. The herd sees oversupply. Smart money sees falling rig counts, slowing production growth, and tier-one operators dominating market share. You can't produce oil without rigs. Lower rig counts today mean tighter supply tomorrow.

Wall Street had a panic attack this week. Trump imposed sweeping sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil (5%+ of global output). Oil spiked 7% for the week. CNBC called it a supply shock. Retail investors chased the rally. But crude is still down 10% YTD. OPEC will add 137K bpd in November. China paused Russian crude purchases. Indian refiners are cutting imports. U.S. rig count: 548—operators didn't add a single oil rig. They're not buying the hype. Natural gas inventories 4.5% above 5-year average. LNG exports hitting monthly highs. This wasn't a supply crisis. This was a headline crisis.

Today we're answering the question Courtney Moeller gets asked most often: "How are 80-85% first-year tax deductions even legal?" Congress wrote the tax code to encourage domestic oil and gas production. IDC (70-80% of investment) is 100% deductible under IRC Section 263(c). Tangible equipment (20-30%) is depreciable over 7 years. These deductions offset ordinary income, not just capital gains. A $100K investment = $85K deduction = $31K+ tax savings for high-earners.

Today's Iron Horse Daily Brief delivers critical real-time market intelligence on WTI crude ($58.68), Brent crude ($62.37), and natural gas ($3.03). Despite IEA warnings of a glut, Courtney Moeller unveils the contrarian truth: non-OPEC supply is dropping at $60 oil, and the energy transition is faltering amidst surging demand. This episode highlights why oil and gas working interests offer unparalleled tax deductions and cash flow for accredited investors as Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 closes in 45 days.

Today's Iron Horse Daily Brief dissects JPMorgan's outlook on a new energy supercycle, detailing global oil market deficits, potential price spikes, and why energy stocks are positioned to outperform. Courtney Moeller delivers these critical insights before anyone else, challenging the status quo for accredited investors.

Daily insights for investors who refuse to overpay the IRS. WTI crude analysis, Baker Hughes rig count, IEA demand outlook, and why Iron Horse Energy Fund 1 closes November 30th—48 days from today.